Viewing archive of måndag, 17 november 2003

Solaktivitetsrapport

Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Rapport för sol- och geofysisk aktivitet 2003 Nov 17 2200 UTC
Skapad av NOAA © SWPC och bearbetad av SpaceWeatherLive.com

USAF/NOAA rapport för sol- och geofysisk aktivitet

SDF Nummer 321 publicerat klockan 2200Z på 17 Nov 2003

IA. Analys av solfläcksgrupper och solaktivitet från 16-2100Z till 17-2100Z

Solar activity has been moderate. Region 501 (N04E22) has generated two M-class flares, an M1 x-ray event at 17/0134Z, and an M4/1n event at 17/0905Z. The second event was accompanied by a Type II radio sweep and a coronal mass ejection measured form the LASCO coronagraph with an estimated speed of 1085 km/s. This region underwent little change over the period and retains a beta-gamma magnetic structure. Region 505 (S22E58) was newly numbered to day.
IB. Prognos för solaktivitet
Solar activity is expected to be low to moderate for the next three days. Region 501 will continue to harbor a threat for M-class activity. Old active Regions 486 and 488 will be returning late in the period, and pose an increased threat for M-class activity.
IIA. Sammanfattning av geofysisk aktivitet 16-2100Z till 17-2100Z
The geomagnetic field has been at active to minor storm levels. The favorably positioned coronal hole continued to cause high solar wind speeds, and the accompanying southward Bz of the interplanetary magnetic field, have kept the geomagnetic field activity at elevated levels throughout the period. The greater than 2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit reached high levels today.
IIB. Prognos för geofysisk aktivitet
The geomagnetic field is expected to be at predominantly unsettled to active levels for the next two days. The coronal hole will pass from geoeffective position, and the solar wind speeds should subside. On day three (possibly late on day two) a glancing blow from the coronal mass ejection that occurred on 17 Nov at 0917Z is anticipated, elevating activity to periods of minor storm levels.
III. Chans för solutbrott från 18 Nov till 20 Nov
M-klass50%55%55%
X-klass05%10%10%
Proton05%10%10%
PCAFgreen
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
  Observerad       17 Nov 121
  Prognoserat   18 Nov-20 Nov  135/155/165
  90 Day Mean        17 Nov 128
V. Geomagnetiskt A-index
  Observerad Afr/Ap 16 Nov  032/035
  Förväntat     Afr/Ap 17 Nov  028/037
  Prognoserat    Afr/Ap 18 Nov-20 Nov  012/020-010/010-015/015
VI. Chanser för geomagnetisk aktivitet från 18 Nov till 20 Nov
A. Medelhöga breddgrader
Aktivt35%35%35%
Små stormförhållanden10%10%20%
Svåra stormförhållanden05%05%15%
B. Höga breddgrader
Aktivt35%40%45%
Små stormförhållanden40%20%30%
Svåra stormförhållanden20%05%10%

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