Viewing archive of lördag, 1 november 2003

Solaktivitetsrapport

Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Rapport för sol- och geofysisk aktivitet 2003 Nov 01 2200 UTC
Skapad av NOAA © SWPC och bearbetad av SpaceWeatherLive.com

USAF/NOAA rapport för sol- och geofysisk aktivitet

SDF Nummer 305 publicerat klockan 2200Z på 01 Nov 2003

IA. Analys av solfläcksgrupper och solaktivitet från 31-2100Z till 01-2100Z

Solar activity was at moderate levels today. Region 488 (N08W55) produced two M-class flares during the period; an M1 x-ray flare at 01/0852Z and a second M1 x-ray flare at 01/1751Z. Due to insufficient data from LASCO imagery it is unknown if there is any associated CME activity. This region has changed little during the period and continues to depict a very complex beta-gamma-delta magnetic structure. White light areal coverage is at 1610 millionths. Region 486 (S17W49) continues to be considerable in size and complexity although it only managed to produced lesser C-class flare activity during the period. Slight, yet continued decay was observed over the past 24 hours of penumbral coverage in white light analysis. This region is still very impressive and continues to exhibit a very complex beta-gamma-delta magnetic configuration. Much of the remainder of the disk and limb were relatively quiescent today. No new regions were numbered today
IB. Prognos för solaktivitet
Solar activity is expected to be at moderate to high levels. Regions 486 and 488 are both capable of producing major flare activity.
IIA. Sammanfattning av geofysisk aktivitet 31-2100Z till 01-2100Z
The geomagnetic field was at unsettled to minor storm levels. Solar wind speeds have gradually decreased from the start of the period, approximately 850 km/s to 600 km/s (at the time of this writing) while the Bz component of the interplanetary magnetic field has remained consistently northward during the period. The greater than 10 MeV proton fluxes at geosynchronous orbit that had two distinct maximum measurements (29,000 pfu at 29/0615Z; from the X17 flare and 3,300 pfu at 30/1935Z; from the X10 flare) resulting from subsequent days major flare activity has ended at 01/1310Z. The greater than 2 MeV electron fluxes at geosynchronous orbit reached high levels today.
IIB. Prognos för geofysisk aktivitet
The geomagnetic field is expected to be at predominantly unsettled to active levels. Isolated minor storm conditions are possible on day one due to the elevated solar wind speeds. The greater than 10 MeV proton fluxes at geosynchronous orbit remain elevated and could again reach alert threshold with continued major flare activity.
III. Chans för solutbrott från 02 Nov till 04 Nov
M-klass70%70%60%
X-klass35%30%25%
Proton50%35%15%
PCAFyellow
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
  Observerad       01 Nov 210
  Prognoserat   02 Nov-04 Nov  200/190/175
  90 Day Mean        01 Nov 130
V. Geomagnetiskt A-index
  Observerad Afr/Ap 31 Oct  073/093
  Förväntat     Afr/Ap 01 Nov  020/020
  Prognoserat    Afr/Ap 02 Nov-04 Nov  010/015-010/010-010/010
VI. Chanser för geomagnetisk aktivitet från 02 Nov till 04 Nov
A. Medelhöga breddgrader
Aktivt25%20%20%
Små stormförhållanden10%10%10%
Svåra stormförhållanden05%05%05%
B. Höga breddgrader
Aktivt35%25%25%
Små stormförhållanden20%15%10%
Svåra stormförhållanden10%05%05%

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