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Solaktivitetsrapport

Rapport för sol- och geofysisk aktivitet 2003 Oct 23 2200 UTC
Skapad av NOAA © SWPC och bearbetad av SpaceWeatherLive.com

USAF/NOAA rapport för sol- och geofysisk aktivitet

SDF Nummer 296 publicerat klockan 2200Z på 23 Oct 2003

IA. Analys av solfläcksgrupper och solaktivitet från 22-2100Z till 23-2100Z

Solar activity was at high levels again today. Region 486 (S16E70) produced a major flare at 23/0835 UTC; it was an X5/1b event, with an associated Tenflare and a Type II radio sweep that had an estimated shock velocity of 967 km/s. An associated CME was also seen on SOHO/LASCO imagery. A second major flare from this region occurred at 23/2004 UTC, which was an impulsive X1/1n flare. This region is just rotating into view on the southeast limb, and is obviously a very large group, with a complex beta-gamma-delta magnetic configuration. Region 484 (N04W00) was fairly active producing several M-class flares today. The largest was an M3/1n event that occurred at 23/0708 UTC. This region continues to depict a complex beta-gamma-delta magnetic structure. No new regions were numbered today. The F10 value is estimated and is based on the Penticton morning reading due to a flare enhancement during the reading of the noon value.
IB. Prognos för solaktivitet
Solar activity is expected to be at high levels. Regions 484 and 486 are both very capable of producing major flares.
IIA. Sammanfattning av geofysisk aktivitet 22-2100Z till 23-2100Z
The geomagnetic field was at quiet to unsettled levels. The greater than 2 MeV electron fluxes at geosynchronous orbit were at high levels today.
IIB. Prognos för geofysisk aktivitet
The geomagnetic field is expected to range from active to major storm levels for the forecast period. These elevated conditions are expected as a result of the partial halo CME on 22/0754 UTC and from the X5/1b flare at 23/0835 UTC.
III. Chans för solutbrott från 24 Oct till 26 Oct
M-klass90%90%90%
X-klass50%50%50%
Proton25%30%35%
PCAFyellow
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
  Observerad       23 Oct 183
  Prognoserat   24 Oct-26 Oct  190/195/195
  90 Day Mean        23 Oct 114
V. Geomagnetiskt A-index
  Observerad Afr/Ap 22 Oct  020/033
  Förväntat     Afr/Ap 23 Oct  008/010
  Prognoserat    Afr/Ap 24 Oct-26 Oct  040/050-040/050-030/050
VI. Chanser för geomagnetisk aktivitet från 24 Oct till 26 Oct
A. Medelhöga breddgrader
Aktivt30%30%40%
Små stormförhållanden40%40%30%
Svåra stormförhållanden30%30%20%
B. Höga breddgrader
Aktivt20%20%20%
Små stormförhållanden40%40%40%
Svåra stormförhållanden40%40%40%

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