Visa arkiv av onsdag 22 oktober 2003

Solaktivitetsrapport

Rapport för sol- och geofysisk aktivitet 2003 Oct 22 2200 UTC
Skapad av NOAA © SWPC och bearbetad av SpaceWeatherLive.com

USAF/NOAA rapport för sol- och geofysisk aktivitet

SDF Nummer 295 publicerat klockan 2200Z på 22 Oct 2003

IA. Analys av solfläcksgrupper och solaktivitet från 21-2100Z till 22-2100Z

Solar activity increased to high levels today. The disk and limb were very active during the period. Region 486 (S16E81) which was newly numbered today, produced several M-class flares over the interval. The largest were an M9.8 x-ray event that occurred at 22/2007 UTC, an M3.7, and two M1.7's. Region 484 (N04E13) produced an M1.4/Sn at 1511 UTC and an M1.2/Sn at 1601 UTC. Moreover, 2 separate filament eruptions were seen on SOHO/EIT imagery from the vicinity of this region spawning a partial halo CME that appears to be Earth directed. Magnetic field remains extremely complex, a beta-gamma-delta (with several delta structures) through this north-south oriented spot cluster. A slight growth in penumbral coverage was noted during the period.
IB. Prognos för solaktivitet
Solar activity is expected to be at moderate to high levels. Regions 484 and 486 are both capable of producing isolated major flares.
IIA. Sammanfattning av geofysisk aktivitet 21-2100Z till 22-2100Z
The geomagnetic field ranged from unsettled to major storm levels today. A recurrent coronal hole high speed stream is responsible for the elevated conditions. The greater than 2 MeV electron fluxes at geosynchronous orbit reached high levels today.
IIB. Prognos för geofysisk aktivitet
The geomagnetic field is expected to be at predominantly active levels through day one of the forecast period. The partial halo CME from today is expected to arrive mid-day on the 24th of October and may produce periods of major storming. Day three should see a return to unsettled to active conditions.
III. Chans för solutbrott från 23 Oct till 25 Oct
M-klass70%70%70%
X-klass30%30%30%
Proton15%15%20%
PCAFyellow
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
  Observerad       22 Oct 154
  Prognoserat   23 Oct-25 Oct  160/165/170
  90 Day Mean        22 Oct 116
V. Geomagnetiskt A-index
  Observerad Afr/Ap 21 Oct  028/039
  Förväntat     Afr/Ap 22 Oct  020/038
  Prognoserat    Afr/Ap 23 Oct-25 Oct  020/030-040/045-015/025
VI. Chanser för geomagnetisk aktivitet från 23 Oct till 25 Oct
A. Medelhöga breddgrader
Aktivt40%30%30%
Små stormförhållanden25%40%20%
Svåra stormförhållanden10%25%05%
B. Höga breddgrader
Aktivt45%25%40%
Små stormförhållanden35%40%25%
Svåra stormförhållanden15%30%10%

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