Visa arkiv av tisdag 21 oktober 2003

Solaktivitetsrapport

Rapport för sol- och geofysisk aktivitet 2003 Oct 21 2200 UTC
Skapad av NOAA © SWPC och bearbetad av SpaceWeatherLive.com

USAF/NOAA rapport för sol- och geofysisk aktivitet

SDF Nummer 294 publicerat klockan 2200Z på 21 Oct 2003

IA. Analys av solfläcksgrupper och solaktivitet från 20-2100Z till 21-2100Z

Solar activity has been moderate. There has been a steady series of C-class flares and a single M1.0 at 21/0827 UTC. Region 484 (N05E26) continues to grow, but at a lesser rate than yesterday. The region is now 1650 millionths with at least a 50% increase in magnetic intensity. A region just beyond the East limb, generated a strong CME at approximately 21/0300 UTC, but does not appear to be Earth-directed.
IB. Prognos för solaktivitet
Solar activity is expected to remain moderate. Region 484, and the new Region approaching the East limb, are a combined threat to continue to generate C-class activity, with an occasional M-class flare. There is a slight chance for an isolated X-class event, and an even lesser chance for a proton-producing flare. By day three, Region 484 will near central meridian, and become a slightly higher threat for producing a flare event which could generate protons at near-Earth.
IIA. Sammanfattning av geofysisk aktivitet 20-2100Z till 21-2100Z
The geomagnetic field has been at active to minor storm levels. A favorably positioned coronal hole is supporting a high-speed solar wind stream, which is in turn supporting elevated magnetic activity at Earth. The greater than 2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit reached high levels today.
IIB. Prognos för geofysisk aktivitet
The geomagnetic field is expected to be at active to minor storm levels for the next three days. The coronal hole will proceed out of geoeffective range around the second day, but a faint shock associated with a CME which occurred on the 19th should lightly impact Earth, once again elevating magnetic activity on day three.
III. Chans för solutbrott från 22 Oct till 24 Oct
M-klass70%70%70%
X-klass15%15%15%
Proton10%10%15%
PCAFgreen
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
  Observerad       21 Oct 152
  Prognoserat   22 Oct-24 Oct  150/155/160
  90 Day Mean        21 Oct 114
V. Geomagnetiskt A-index
  Observerad Afr/Ap 20 Oct  020/030
  Förväntat     Afr/Ap 21 Oct  028/030
  Prognoserat    Afr/Ap 22 Oct-24 Oct  020/025-020/020-025/020
VI. Chanser för geomagnetisk aktivitet från 22 Oct till 24 Oct
A. Medelhöga breddgrader
Aktivt35%35%30%
Små stormförhållanden30%30%35%
Svåra stormförhållanden10%10%15%
B. Höga breddgrader
Aktivt25%25%25%
Små stormförhållanden35%30%35%
Svåra stormförhållanden15%10%15%

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