Viewing archive of måndag, 20 oktober 2003
Solaktivitetsrapport
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Rapport för sol- och geofysisk aktivitet 2003 Oct 20 2200 UTCSkapad av NOAA © SWPC och bearbetad av SpaceWeatherLive.com
USAF/NOAA rapport för sol- och geofysisk aktivitet
SDF Nummer 293 publicerat klockan 2200Z på 20 Oct 2003IA. Analys av solfläcksgrupper och solaktivitet från 19-2100Z till 20-2100Z Solar activity has been low to moderate. Region 484
(N06E41) has increased again to 1500 millionths with over 56
sunspots and a strong Beta-Gamma-Delta magnetic configuration. It
has produced several C-class flares and a long-duration M-class
flare at 0722 UTC. Further analysis of a CME which occurred 18
October around 1830 UTC indicates that a faint portion was
Earth-directed.
IB. Prognos för solaktivitet
Solar activity is expected to be low
to moderate. There's a slight chance for another isolated X-class
flare and an even lesser chance of proton activity from Region 484.
IIA. Sammanfattning av geofysisk aktivitet 19-2100Z till 20-2100Z
The geomagnetic field has been at low to minor storm levels. Another
favorably positioned coronal hole is perpetuating the high speed
solar wind stream, and is continuing to keep the geomagnetic field
disturbed. The interplanetary magnetic field has settled to a low
value of around 8 nT, which is keeping the overall disturbance at a
maximum of minor storm levels. The greater than 2 MeV electron flux
at geosynchronous orbit reached high levels today.
IIB. Prognos för geofysisk aktivitet
The geomagnetic field is
expected to be at active to minor storm levels for the next 24
hours, dropping to mostly low with a chance for isolated periods of
minor storming during day two. On day three, the faintly
Earth-directed CME from 18 October should impact the magnetic field,
and is likely to increase activity to mostly active to minor
storming, with a chance for an isolated period of major storming.
III. Chans för solutbrott från 21 Oct till 23 Oct
| M-klass | 70% | 70% | 70% |
| X-klass | 15% | 15% | 15% |
| Proton | 10% | 10% | 10% |
| PCAF | green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observerad 20 Oct 135 Prognoserat 21 Oct-23 Oct 130/130/130 90 Day Mean 20 Oct 115
V. Geomagnetiskt A-index
Observerad Afr/Ap 19 Oct 022/032 Förväntat Afr/Ap 20 Oct 020/025 Prognoserat Afr/Ap 21 Oct-23 Oct 025/030-015/020-020/020
VI. Chanser för geomagnetisk aktivitet från 21 Oct till 23 Oct
| A. Medelhöga breddgrader | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Aktivt | 35% | 35% | 35% |
| Små stormförhållanden | 30% | 30% | 30% |
| Svåra stormförhållanden | 20% | 10% | 20% |
| B. Höga breddgrader | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Aktivt | 25% | 30% | 30% |
| Små stormförhållanden | 25% | 20% | 20% |
| Svåra stormförhållanden | 15% | 10% | 10% |
Senaste nytt
lördag, 23 mars 2024
X1.1 solar flare with earth-directed CME
onsdag, 20 mars 2024
Sunspot region 3615, G1 watch
torsdag, 22 februari 2024
X6.3 solar flare
Senaste inläggen
Unspecified geomagnetic activity 942Unproven theories 323Growth of Cycle 25 424GONG Farside Images added to the SWL site? 5Changelog/Featurelog 152
Fler foruminläggStöd SpaceWeatherLive.com!
För att vara tillgängliga vid stora norrskensutbrott måsta vi ha kraftiga servrar som kan hantera alla besökare. Donera och stöd vårt projekt, så att vi kan finnas online även under stora stormar!
Rymdvädersfakta
| Senaste X-utbrottet | 2024/03/28 | X1.1 |
| Senaste M-utbrottet | 2024/04/19 | M1.0 |
| Senaste geomagnetiska stormen | 2024/04/19 | Kp7 (G3) |
| Fläckfria dagar | |
|---|---|
| Senaste dag utan solfläckar | 2022/06/08 |
| Månadsvis faktiskt antal solfläckar | |
|---|---|
| mars 2024 | 104.9 -19.8 |