Viewing archive of fredag, 17 oktober 2003
Solaktivitetsrapport
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Rapport för sol- och geofysisk aktivitet 2003 Oct 17 2200 UTCSkapad av NOAA © SWPC och bearbetad av SpaceWeatherLive.com
USAF/NOAA rapport för sol- och geofysisk aktivitet
SDF Nummer 290 publicerat klockan 2200Z på 17 Oct 2003IA. Analys av solfläcksgrupper och solaktivitet från 16-2100Z till 17-2100Z Solar activity was very low. Today's largest flares
were a B9 at 0701 UTC from newly numbered Region 482 (N16E62), and a
long-duration B8 at 0932 UTC from behind east limb at about N03.
Newly numbered Region 481 (S08W17) emerged on the disk today. Solar
imagery suggests that there are additional active regions close to
east limb which will be rotating into view soon.
IB. Prognos för solaktivitet
Solar activity is expected to be very
low to low. There is a fair chance for an isolated C-class flare
sometime during the next three days.
IIA. Sammanfattning av geofysisk aktivitet 16-2100Z till 17-2100Z
The geomagnetic field ranged from quiet to minor storm levels. The
earth continues to be under the influence of a high-speed solar wind
stream. The stream continues to decline slowly as the initial speeds
around 560 km/s decreased down to about 520 km/s by the end of the
period. The interplanetary magnetic field showed regular oscillations
and had a weakly negative Bz component on average during the past 24
hours. The greater than 2 MeV electron fluxes were at high levels
during the past 24 hours.
IIB. Prognos för geofysisk aktivitet
The geomagnetic field is
expected to be unsettled to active for the next 24 hours. Unsettled
levels are expected to prevail for the second and third days.
III. Chans för solutbrott från 18 Oct till 20 Oct
| M-klass | 05% | 05% | 05% |
| X-klass | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Proton | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| PCAF | Green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observerad 17 Oct 099 Prognoserat 18 Oct-20 Oct 105/110/110 90 Day Mean 17 Oct 116
V. Geomagnetiskt A-index
Observerad Afr/Ap 16 Oct 016/026 Förväntat Afr/Ap 17 Oct 020/025 Prognoserat Afr/Ap 18 Oct-20 Oct 015/020-010/015-010/015
VI. Chanser för geomagnetisk aktivitet från 18 Oct till 20 Oct
| A. Medelhöga breddgrader | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Aktivt | 35% | 30% | 30% |
| Små stormförhållanden | 20% | 15% | 15% |
| Svåra stormförhållanden | 10% | 05% | 05% |
| B. Höga breddgrader | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Aktivt | 35% | 35% | 35% |
| Små stormförhållanden | 30% | 25% | 25% |
| Svåra stormförhållanden | 25% | 15% | 15% |
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