Viewing archive of torsdag, 25 september 2003
Solaktivitetsrapport
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Rapport för sol- och geofysisk aktivitet 2003 Sep 25 2200 UTCSkapad av NOAA © SWPC och bearbetad av SpaceWeatherLive.com
USAF/NOAA rapport för sol- och geofysisk aktivitet
SDF Nummer 268 publicerat klockan 2200Z på 25 Sep 2003IA. Analys av solfläcksgrupper och solaktivitet från 24-2100Z till 25-2100Z Solar activity was at low levels today. Region 464
(N04E09) produced several B and C-class flares during the period.
This region has become more complex during the past 24 hours.
Intermediate spots indicate that a gamma structure is present. The
remainder of the numbered regions were fairly quiet during the
period. No new regions were numbered today.
IB. Prognos för solaktivitet
Solar activity is expected to be at
low levels. Due to the growing complexity of Region 464, there may
be a chance of an isolated M-class flare.
IIA. Sammanfattning av geofysisk aktivitet 24-2100Z till 25-2100Z
The geomagnetic field has ranged from active to minor storm levels.
A favorably positioned high speed coronal hole stream is responsible
for the elevated conditions. The greater than 2 MeV electron flux
at geosynchronous orbit reached high levels today.
IIB. Prognos för geofysisk aktivitet
The geomagnetic field is
expected to be at predominantly active levels due to the high speed
stream effects. The disappearing solar filament from yesterday and
the associated ejecta may further enhance the geomagnetic field,
pushing activity into minor storm levels with isolated periods of
major storming possible on day two of the period.
III. Chans för solutbrott från 26 Sep till 28 Sep
| M-klass | 40% | 40% | 40% |
| X-klass | 05% | 05% | 05% |
| Proton | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| PCAF | green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observerad 25 Sep 133 Prognoserat 26 Sep-28 Sep 135/130/130 90 Day Mean 25 Sep 120
V. Geomagnetiskt A-index
Observerad Afr/Ap 24 Sep 027/033 Förväntat Afr/Ap 25 Sep 025/030 Prognoserat Afr/Ap 26 Sep-28 Sep 012/015-020/030-015/020
VI. Chanser för geomagnetisk aktivitet från 26 Sep till 28 Sep
| A. Medelhöga breddgrader | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Aktivt | 35% | 45% | 40% |
| Små stormförhållanden | 15% | 25% | 15% |
| Svåra stormförhållanden | 05% | 15% | 10% |
| B. Höga breddgrader | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Aktivt | 40% | 35% | 50% |
| Små stormförhållanden | 15% | 40% | 30% |
| Svåra stormförhållanden | 10% | 20% | 10% |
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Rymdvädersfakta
| Senaste X-utbrottet | 2024/03/28 | X1.1 |
| Senaste M-utbrottet | 2024/04/25 | M1.0 |
| Senaste geomagnetiska stormen | 2024/04/19 | Kp7 (G3) |
| Fläckfria dagar | |
|---|---|
| Senaste dag utan solfläckar | 2022/06/08 |
| Månadsvis faktiskt antal solfläckar | |
|---|---|
| mars 2024 | 104.9 -19.8 |
| Last 30 days | 133.9 +26.6 |