Viewing archive of måndag, 22 september 2003

Solaktivitetsrapport

Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Rapport för sol- och geofysisk aktivitet 2003 Sep 22 2200 UTC
Skapad av NOAA © SWPC och bearbetad av SpaceWeatherLive.com

USAF/NOAA rapport för sol- och geofysisk aktivitet

SDF Nummer 265 publicerat klockan 2200Z på 22 Sep 2003

IA. Analys av solfläcksgrupper och solaktivitet från 21-2100Z till 22-2100Z

Solar activity was very low during the past 24 hours. Region 464 (N06E49) continues to be the largest group on the disk and showed slow growth during the past 24 hours. The region's magnetic structure is mostly bipolar, but there is some weak polarity mixing in the central part of the group, giving it a beta-gamma classification. New Region 465 (S02E50) was assigned today and is stacked just below Region 464. New Region 466 (S04E72) rotated into view today and appears to be a small, simple sunspot group. A CME was observed at 21/2130 UTC in LASCO-C2 coronagraph data and was centered very close to the solar north pole. The lack of corresponding disk signatures suggest that this was a back-sided event.
IB. Prognos för solaktivitet
Solar activity is expected to be low. There continues to be, however, a slight chance for an isolated M-class flare from Region 464.
IIA. Sammanfattning av geofysisk aktivitet 21-2100Z till 22-2100Z
The geomagnetic field was at quiet to active levels during the past 24 hours. There was an interval of quiet to unsettled level activity from 21/2100 UTC through 22/0300 UTC, but conditions became disturbed (unsettled to active) from 0300 UTC through the end of the day. The activity is being driven by a continuing high speed solar wind stream associated with a coronal hole. The greater than 2 MeV electron fluxes reached high levels during the past 24 hours.
IIB. Prognos för geofysisk aktivitet
The geomagnetic field is expected to be unsettled to active for the next two days. Conditions should be predominantly unsettled by the third day as the high speed wind stream is expected to be significantly reduced by that time.
III. Chans för solutbrott från 23 Sep till 25 Sep
M-klass15%15%15%
X-klass01%01%01%
Proton01%01%01%
PCAFgreen
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
  Observerad       22 Sep 123
  Prognoserat   23 Sep-25 Sep  125/120/120
  90 Day Mean        22 Sep 120
V. Geomagnetiskt A-index
  Observerad Afr/Ap 21 Sep  019/021
  Förväntat     Afr/Ap 22 Sep  015/020
  Prognoserat    Afr/Ap 23 Sep-25 Sep  015/020-015/020-015/015
VI. Chanser för geomagnetisk aktivitet från 23 Sep till 25 Sep
A. Medelhöga breddgrader
Aktivt30%30%30%
Små stormförhållanden25%25%25%
Svåra stormförhållanden10%10%10%
B. Höga breddgrader
Aktivt30%30%30%
Små stormförhållanden25%25%25%
Svåra stormförhållanden20%20%20%

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