Viewing archive of fredag, 19 september 2003
Solaktivitetsrapport
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Rapport för sol- och geofysisk aktivitet 2003 Sep 19 2200 UTCSkapad av NOAA © SWPC och bearbetad av SpaceWeatherLive.com
USAF/NOAA rapport för sol- och geofysisk aktivitet
SDF Nummer 262 publicerat klockan 2200Z på 19 Sep 2003IA. Analys av solfläcksgrupper och solaktivitet från 18-2100Z till 19-2100Z Solar activity was low. There were two C-class flares
during the past 24 hours. The first was a C2 at 18/2151 UTC which
appears to have originated from a region behind the east limb near
S06. The second was a C1 at 1820 UTC which was associated with
activity in Region 461 (N17E21). Region 461 continues to be the
largest region on the disk. Region 459 (S11W27) is showing slow,
steady growth and possesses a predominantly East-West inversion
line.
IB. Prognos för solaktivitet
Solar activity is expected to be low
for the next three days.
IIA. Sammanfattning av geofysisk aktivitet 18-2100Z till 19-2100Z
The geomagnetic field ranged from active to minor storm levels during
the past 24 hours. This activity was due to the continued influence
of a high speed solar wind stream associated with a favorably
positioned coronal hole. Solar wind velocity has shown a slow
decline over the past 24 hours, with initial values around 800 km/s
having decreased to day-end values around 675 km/s.
IIB. Prognos för geofysisk aktivitet
The geomagnetic field is
expected to be mostly active with some isolated minor storm periods
for the next two days as the current disturbance persists. A decline
to unsettled to slightly active is expected by the third day.
III. Chans för solutbrott från 20 Sep till 22 Sep
| M-klass | 10% | 10% | 10% |
| X-klass | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Proton | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| PCAF | green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observerad 19 Sep 111 Prognoserat 20 Sep-22 Sep 110/115/115 90 Day Mean 19 Sep 120
V. Geomagnetiskt A-index
Observerad Afr/Ap 18 Sep 029/040 Förväntat Afr/Ap 19 Sep 025/035 Prognoserat Afr/Ap 20 Sep-22 Sep 020/025-020/025-015/015
VI. Chanser för geomagnetisk aktivitet från 20 Sep till 22 Sep
| A. Medelhöga breddgrader | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Aktivt | 40% | 40% | 25% |
| Små stormförhållanden | 25% | 25% | 20% |
| Svåra stormförhållanden | 05% | 05% | 05% |
| B. Höga breddgrader | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Aktivt | 30% | 30% | 35% |
| Små stormförhållanden | 30% | 30% | 25% |
| Svåra stormförhållanden | 20% | 20% | 10% |
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Rymdvädersfakta
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