Viewing archive of fredag, 18 juli 2003
Solaktivitetsrapport
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Rapport för sol- och geofysisk aktivitet 2003 Jul 18 2200 UTCSkapad av NOAA © SWPC och bearbetad av SpaceWeatherLive.com
USAF/NOAA rapport för sol- och geofysisk aktivitet
SDF Nummer 199 publicerat klockan 2200Z på 18 Jul 2003IA. Analys av solfläcksgrupper och solaktivitet från 17-2100Z till 18-2100Z Solar activity was at low levels. Region 410 (S11W01)
produced two consecutive C5 flares at 17/2356Z and 18/0005Z. Region
410 continues to increase in area coverage and magnetic complexity.
Region 412 (N17W06) exhibited growth in area and magnetic
complexity, developing a beta-gamma magnetic configuration due to
mixing polarities in the trailing spots. Region 409 (N15E05)
continued its gradual decay and simplified to a beta magnetic
configuration. New Region 414 (S02E58) was numbered today.
IB. Prognos för solaktivitet
Solar activity is expected to be low
to moderate. Regions 410, and 412 have the potential for M-class
activity over the next three days. Region 409 has the potential for
M-class activity on day one.
IIA. Sammanfattning av geofysisk aktivitet 17-2100Z till 18-2100Z
The geomagnetic field has been quiet to active. Active conditions
were observed early in the period. Solar wind speed decreased from
600 km/s to 500 km/s around 18/0700Z and remained at 500 km/s for
the remainder of the day. This decrease marks the end of the
coronal hole high speed stream.
IIB. Prognos för geofysisk aktivitet
The geomagnetic field is
expected to be at quiet to unsettled levels. Isolated active
conditions are possible during night time hours.
III. Chans för solutbrott från 19 Jul till 21 Jul
| M-klass | 45% | 45% | 45% |
| X-klass | 05% | 05% | 05% |
| Proton | 05% | 05% | 05% |
| PCAF | green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observerad 18 Jul 140 Prognoserat 19 Jul-21 Jul 135/140/140 90 Day Mean 18 Jul 127
V. Geomagnetiskt A-index
Observerad Afr/Ap 17 Jul 014/022 Förväntat Afr/Ap 18 Jul 012/012 Prognoserat Afr/Ap 19 Jul-21 Jul 015/015-015/015-012/012
VI. Chanser för geomagnetisk aktivitet från 19 Jul till 21 Jul
| A. Medelhöga breddgrader | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Aktivt | 35% | 35% | 25% |
| Små stormförhållanden | 20% | 20% | 15% |
| Svåra stormförhållanden | 05% | 05% | 01% |
| B. Höga breddgrader | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Aktivt | 35% | 35% | 35% |
| Små stormförhållanden | 20% | 20% | 20% |
| Svåra stormförhållanden | 05% | 05% | 05% |
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