Viewing archive of torsdag, 17 juli 2003
Solaktivitetsrapport
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Rapport för sol- och geofysisk aktivitet 2003 Jul 17 2200 UTCSkapad av NOAA © SWPC och bearbetad av SpaceWeatherLive.com
USAF/NOAA rapport för sol- och geofysisk aktivitet
SDF Nummer 198 publicerat klockan 2200Z på 17 Jul 2003IA. Analys av solfläcksgrupper och solaktivitet från 16-2100Z till 17-2100Z Solar activity was low. Today's activity consisted of
numerous C-class flares. The largest of these was a C9/1n at 0823
UTC from Region 412 (N16E05), which was also accompanied by type II
and type IV radio sweeps. Region 412 has shown steady growth with
the emergence of new magnetic flux during the past 24 hours. Region
410 (S12E12) also showed steady growth and was the only other source
for C-class flares. Region 410 has some mixed magnetic polarities
and could develop a delta magnetic configuration. Region 409
(N16E27) continues to be the largest region on the disk but
continues to show decline and simplification. New Region 414
(S02E71) rotated into view today.
IB. Prognos för solaktivitet
Solar activity is expected to be
mostly low but there is a chance for an isolated M-class event over
the next three days, with regions 409, 410, and 412 the most likely
sources.
IIA. Sammanfattning av geofysisk aktivitet 16-2100Z till 17-2100Z
The geomagnetic field ranged from unsettled to minor storm levels
during the past 24 hours. Today's solar wind continues to show the
presence of a high-speed coronal hole solar wind stream. The greater
than 2 MeV electron fluxes reached high levels during the past 24
hours.
IIB. Prognos för geofysisk aktivitet
The geomagnetic field is
expected to be mostly unsettled with a few isolated active periods
for the next two days. Unsettled to active levels are expected for
the third day. The increase on day three may occur as a possible
response to activity associated with today's C9 flare event.
III. Chans för solutbrott från 18 Jul till 20 Jul
| M-klass | 45% | 45% | 45% |
| X-klass | 05% | 05% | 05% |
| Proton | 05% | 05% | 05% |
| PCAF | green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observerad 17 Jul 139 Prognoserat 18 Jul-20 Jul 140/135/140 90 Day Mean 17 Jul 126
V. Geomagnetiskt A-index
Observerad Afr/Ap 16 Jul 023/048 Förväntat Afr/Ap 17 Jul 020/020 Prognoserat Afr/Ap 18 Jul-20 Jul 015/012-015/015-015/020
VI. Chanser för geomagnetisk aktivitet från 18 Jul till 20 Jul
| A. Medelhöga breddgrader | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Aktivt | 45% | 45% | 45% |
| Små stormförhållanden | 20% | 20% | 20% |
| Svåra stormförhållanden | 05% | 05% | 05% |
| B. Höga breddgrader | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Aktivt | 35% | 35% | 35% |
| Små stormförhållanden | 20% | 20% | 20% |
| Svåra stormförhållanden | 10% | 10% | 10% |
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Rymdvädersfakta
| Senaste X-utbrottet | 2024/03/28 | X1.1 |
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| Fläckfria dagar | |
|---|---|
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