Viewing archive of onsdag, 2 juli 2003

Solaktivitetsrapport

Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Rapport för sol- och geofysisk aktivitet 2003 Jul 02 2200 UTC
Skapad av NOAA © SWPC och bearbetad av SpaceWeatherLive.com

USAF/NOAA rapport för sol- och geofysisk aktivitet

SDF Nummer 183 publicerat klockan 2200Z på 02 Jul 2003

IA. Analys av solfläcksgrupper och solaktivitet från 01-2100Z till 02-2100Z

Solar activity was moderate. Region 397 (N10E13) produced an M3/1f at 0728 UTC. The group has shown some decay of the spots in the middle portion of the group and loss of the delta configuration, but there has been some growth in the trailer spots. The magnetic classification for the group is now beta-gamma, reflecting its multiple inversion line structure. Region 400 (N04E58) has rotated more fully into view as a small, D-type region and managed to produced a C1/Sf.
IB. Prognos för solaktivitet
Solar activity is expected to be mostly low, but there continues to be a fair chance for an isolated M-class event during the next three days from Region 397.
IIA. Sammanfattning av geofysisk aktivitet 01-2100Z till 02-2100Z
The geomagnetic field was mostly unsettled during the past 24 hours. Solar wind conditions were nominal until about 1800 UTC when an increase was observed in speed and temperature and a decrease was observed in density. This might indicate the onset of the anticipated high speed solar wind stream. The greater than 2 MeV electron fluxes were at high levels during the past 24 hours.
IIB. Prognos för geofysisk aktivitet
The geomagnetic field is expected to be unsettled to active for the next 24 hours, and mostly active for the second and third days. The increase is expected as a result of a high speed wind stream associated with a favorably positioned coronal hole. There is a possibility for isolated storm periods, particularly at the higher latitudes.
III. Chans för solutbrott från 03 Jul till 05 Jul
M-klass40%40%40%
X-klass05%05%05%
Proton05%05%05%
PCAFgreen
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
  Observerad       02 Jul 135
  Prognoserat   03 Jul-05 Jul  140/145/150
  90 Day Mean        02 Jul 123
V. Geomagnetiskt A-index
  Observerad Afr/Ap 01 Jul  014/013
  Förväntat     Afr/Ap 02 Jul  012/014
  Prognoserat    Afr/Ap 03 Jul-05 Jul  015/020-020/025-020/025
VI. Chanser för geomagnetisk aktivitet från 03 Jul till 05 Jul
A. Medelhöga breddgrader
Aktivt35%40%40%
Små stormförhållanden20%25%25%
Svåra stormförhållanden10%10%10%
B. Höga breddgrader
Aktivt30%30%30%
Små stormförhållanden25%30%30%
Svåra stormförhållanden10%15%15%

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