Viewing archive of fredag, 20 juni 2003
Solaktivitetsrapport
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Rapport för sol- och geofysisk aktivitet 2003 Jun 20 2200 UTCSkapad av NOAA © SWPC och bearbetad av SpaceWeatherLive.com
USAF/NOAA rapport för sol- och geofysisk aktivitet
SDF Nummer 171 publicerat klockan 2200Z på 20 Jun 2003IA. Analys av solfläcksgrupper och solaktivitet från 19-2100Z till 20-2100Z Solar activity increased to low levels today. Region
386 (S07E17) produced two low levels C-class flares today along with
several B-class flares. The northern portion of the penumbral field
appears to have undergone some rotation since yesterday while the
delta magnetic structure in the southern leading edge of group has
changed little during the period and remains intact. Region 387
(N18E36) was quiescent today although spot coverage and magnetic
complexity have both shown growth over the period. Region 389
(S12E14) was newly numbered today.
IB. Prognos för solaktivitet
Solar activity is expected to range
from low to moderate levels. Region 386 remains capable of
producing an isolated major event.
IIA. Sammanfattning av geofysisk aktivitet 19-2100Z till 20-2100Z
The geomagnetic field was at predominantly unsettled levels today as
effects from the western most recurrent coronal hole wanes. The
greater than 2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit reached
high levels today.
IIB. Prognos för geofysisk aktivitet
The geomagnetic field is
expected to be at predominantly unsettled levels. Active conditions
may exist especially at high latitudes beginning late on day two
with the return of a recurrent coronal hole high speed stream.
III. Chans för solutbrott från 21 Jun till 23 Jun
| M-klass | 40% | 40% | 40% |
| X-klass | 10% | 10% | 10% |
| Proton | 10% | 10% | 10% |
| PCAF | yellow | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observerad 20 Jun 117 Prognoserat 21 Jun-23 Jun 115/115/120 90 Day Mean 20 Jun 125
V. Geomagnetiskt A-index
Observerad Afr/Ap 19 Jun 016/018 Förväntat Afr/Ap 20 Jun 010/015 Prognoserat Afr/Ap 21 Jun-23 Jun 010/015-012/015-012/020
VI. Chanser för geomagnetisk aktivitet från 21 Jun till 23 Jun
| A. Medelhöga breddgrader | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Aktivt | 15% | 25% | 25% |
| Små stormförhållanden | 05% | 05% | 10% |
| Svåra stormförhållanden | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| B. Höga breddgrader | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Aktivt | 30% | 30% | 40% |
| Små stormförhållanden | 15% | 15% | 20% |
| Svåra stormförhållanden | 05% | 05% | 05% |
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Rymdvädersfakta
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