Viewing archive of måndag, 16 juni 2003
Solaktivitetsrapport
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Rapport för sol- och geofysisk aktivitet 2003 Jun 16 2200 UTCSkapad av NOAA © SWPC och bearbetad av SpaceWeatherLive.com
USAF/NOAA rapport för sol- och geofysisk aktivitet
SDF Nummer 167 publicerat klockan 2200Z på 16 Jun 2003IA. Analys av solfläcksgrupper och solaktivitet från 15-2100Z till 16-2100Z Solar activity was very high. New Region 386 (S07E71)
produced an X1/Sf flare at 15/2356 UTC with an associated Type II
(841 km/s) and Type IV radio sweep. SOHO/LACSO imagery indicates a
full halo CME, however the majority of the ejecta was off to the
east. Region 386 currently indicates a beta magnetic configuration
but its proximity to the east limb prevents a detailed analysis of
the magnetic complexity. Region 380 (S16W51) has slowed its rate of
decay and has developed a beta-gamma magnetic configuration. New
Region 386 was numbered today.
IB. Prognos för solaktivitet
Solar activity is expected to be at
moderate to high levels. Region 386 is expected to produce M-class
and possibly X-class activity.
IIA. Sammanfattning av geofysisk aktivitet 15-2100Z till 16-2100Z
The geomagnetic field was at unsettled to minor storm levels. The
source of the minor storm conditions may be associated with the
Boulder magnetometer scaling problem (see comment in VII). Solar
wind speed was in gradual decay from a peak near 600 km/s early in
the day to a minimum of 450 km/s by 1600UTC. Wind speed then
increased to 550 km/s by the end of the day.
IIB. Prognos för geofysisk aktivitet
The geomagnetic field is
expected to be quiet to active with a chance of isolated minor storm
levels. Late on day one or early on day two, weak CME shock effects
are possible from the X1 event mentioned in IA. A coronal hole high
speed flow is expected late on day two and day three with isolated
minor storm levels possible.
III. Chans för solutbrott från 17 Jun till 19 Jun
| M-klass | 50% | 50% | 50% |
| X-klass | 20% | 20% | 20% |
| Proton | 30% | 20% | 20% |
| PCAF | green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observerad 16 Jun 123 Prognoserat 17 Jun-19 Jun 125/125/120 90 Day Mean 16 Jun 124
V. Geomagnetiskt A-index
Observerad Afr/Ap 15 Jun 013/020 Förväntat Afr/Ap 16 Jun 014/023 Prognoserat Afr/Ap 17 Jun-19 Jun 012/015-020/030-020/030
VI. Chanser för geomagnetisk aktivitet från 17 Jun till 19 Jun
| A. Medelhöga breddgrader | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Aktivt | 25% | 30% | 35% |
| Små stormförhållanden | 10% | 15% | 15% |
| Svåra stormförhållanden | 05% | 05% | 05% |
| B. Höga breddgrader | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Aktivt | 30% | 40% | 40% |
| Små stormförhållanden | 15% | 20% | 25% |
| Svåra stormförhållanden | 05% | 10% | 15% |
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Rymdvädersfakta
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