Viewing archive of fredag, 30 maj 2003
Solaktivitetsrapport
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Rapport för sol- och geofysisk aktivitet 2003 May 30 2200 UTCSkapad av NOAA © SWPC och bearbetad av SpaceWeatherLive.com
USAF/NOAA rapport för sol- och geofysisk aktivitet
SDF Nummer 150 publicerat klockan 2200Z på 30 May 2003IA. Analys av solfläcksgrupper och solaktivitet från 29-2100Z till 30-2100Z Solar activity was low. Region 365 (S07W59) remains the
largest and most complex sunspot group on the disk with some decay
evident since yesterday. The largest flare in this region was a
C8/1n at 30/0650 UTC.
IB. Prognos för solaktivitet
Solar activity is expected to moderate
to high. Region 365 remains capable of another major flare.
IIA. Sammanfattning av geofysisk aktivitet 29-2100Z till 30-2100Z
The geomagnetic field ranged from unsettled to severe storm levels.
The field was mostly unsettled to active since about 30/0600 UTC
with a single minor storm period from 30/1500-1800 UTC. The CME
associated with the X1 flare early on 29 May was apparently observed
to encounter the ACE spacecraft at about 30/1600 UTC. The shock in
solar wind parameters was not strong and an SI was not clearly
observed by ground magnetometers. The proton event at greater than
10 MeV has ended: 28/2335 UTC start, 121 pfu peak at 29/1530 UTC,
and 30/0110 UTC end.
IIB. Prognos för geofysisk aktivitet
The geomagnetic field is
expected to range from unsettled to minor storm levels as the
current CME passes.
III. Chans för solutbrott från 31 May till 02 Jun
| M-klass | 80% | 80% | 80% |
| X-klass | 20% | 20% | 20% |
| Proton | 20% | 20% | 20% |
| PCAF | yellow | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observerad 30 May 117 Prognoserat 31 May-02 Jun 115/110/105 90 Day Mean 30 May 125
V. Geomagnetiskt A-index
Observerad Afr/Ap 29 May 059/089 Förväntat Afr/Ap 30 May 035/060 Prognoserat Afr/Ap 31 May-02 Jun 025/040-015/025-015/020
VI. Chanser för geomagnetisk aktivitet från 31 May till 02 Jun
| A. Medelhöga breddgrader | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Aktivt | 40% | 20% | 15% |
| Små stormförhållanden | 30% | 10% | 05% |
| Svåra stormförhållanden | 15% | 05% | 01% |
| B. Höga breddgrader | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Aktivt | 20% | 50% | 50% |
| Små stormförhållanden | 50% | 20% | 10% |
| Svåra stormförhållanden | 30% | 10% | 01% |
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Rymdvädersfakta
| Senaste X-utbrottet | 2024/03/28 | X1.1 |
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