Viewing archive of torsdag, 29 maj 2003
Solaktivitetsrapport
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Rapport för sol- och geofysisk aktivitet 2003 May 29 2200 UTCSkapad av NOAA © SWPC och bearbetad av SpaceWeatherLive.com
USAF/NOAA rapport för sol- och geofysisk aktivitet
SDF Nummer 149 publicerat klockan 2200Z på 29 May 2003IA. Analys av solfläcksgrupper och solaktivitet från 28-2100Z till 29-2100Z Solar activity was at high levels. Region 365 (S07W45)
once again produced a major flare early in the period. An X1.1/2b
event occurred at 29/0105Z that had an associated Tenflare, Type IV
and Type II (estimated shock velocity of 1170 km/s.) radio sweeps.
SOHO/LASCO imagery depicts a very symmetric full halo CME resulting
from the event. This region remains extremely complex (a
beta-gamma-delta structure) although the penumbral coverage has
shown little growth during the period. Region 368 (S32W15) also
managed to produce a notable flare today, an M1.5/1f event occurred
at 29/0217Z. This region did show some magnetic growth during the
period. No new regions were numbered today.
IB. Prognos för solaktivitet
Solar activity is expected to be at
moderate to high levels. Region 365 continues to show the potential
to produce major flare activity.
IIA. Sammanfattning av geofysisk aktivitet 28-2100Z till 29-2100Z
The geomagnetic field was at unsettled to severe storm levels. A
recurrent coronal hole was responsible for the initial elevated
conditions. At approximately 29/1155Z the first of two transients
associated with the first two X-class flares from late on the 27th
and early on the 28th passed the NASA/ACE space craft. The second
occurred at approximately 29/1830Z and was responsible for the
severe storm conditions seen late in the period. The greater than
10 MeV proton fluxes at geosynchronous orbit achieved event levels
at 28/2335Z and reached a maximum of 121 pfu at 29/1530Z. The
greater than 2 MeV electron fluxes at geosynchronous orbit reached
high levels today.
IIB. Prognos för geofysisk aktivitet
The geomagnetic field is
expected to be at predominantly active to major storm levels with
severe storm condition anticipated. Another transient passage is
expected between 30/0600 and 1200Z on day one of the period. The
greater than 10 MeV proton fluxes should remain above threshold
levels through day one of the interval.
III. Chans för solutbrott från 30 May till 01 Jun
| M-klass | 75% | 75% | 75% |
| X-klass | 25% | 25% | 25% |
| Proton | 80% | 50% | 25% |
| PCAF | in progress | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observerad 29 May 138 Prognoserat 30 May-01 Jun 145/140/135 90 Day Mean 29 May 125
V. Geomagnetiskt A-index
Observerad Afr/Ap 28 May 022/036 Förväntat Afr/Ap 29 May 050/060 Prognoserat Afr/Ap 30 May-01 Jun 050/060-025/040-015/025
VI. Chanser för geomagnetisk aktivitet från 30 May till 01 Jun
| A. Medelhöga breddgrader | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Aktivt | 25% | 50% | 30% |
| Små stormförhållanden | 35% | 25% | 15% |
| Svåra stormförhållanden | 35% | 15% | 05% |
| B. Höga breddgrader | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Aktivt | 20% | 30% | 35% |
| Små stormförhållanden | 35% | 35% | 20% |
| Svåra stormförhållanden | 40% | 30% | 15% |
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