Viewing archive of torsdag 29 maj 2003

Solaktivitetsrapport

Rapport för sol- och geofysisk aktivitet 2003 May 29 2200 UTC
Skapad av NOAA © SWPC och bearbetad av SpaceWeatherLive.com

USAF/NOAA rapport för sol- och geofysisk aktivitet

SDF Nummer 149 publicerat klockan 2200Z på 29 May 2003

IA. Analys av solfläcksgrupper och solaktivitet från 28-2100Z till 29-2100Z

Solar activity was at high levels. Region 365 (S07W45) once again produced a major flare early in the period. An X1.1/2b event occurred at 29/0105Z that had an associated Tenflare, Type IV and Type II (estimated shock velocity of 1170 km/s.) radio sweeps. SOHO/LASCO imagery depicts a very symmetric full halo CME resulting from the event. This region remains extremely complex (a beta-gamma-delta structure) although the penumbral coverage has shown little growth during the period. Region 368 (S32W15) also managed to produce a notable flare today, an M1.5/1f event occurred at 29/0217Z. This region did show some magnetic growth during the period. No new regions were numbered today.
IB. Prognos för solaktivitet
Solar activity is expected to be at moderate to high levels. Region 365 continues to show the potential to produce major flare activity.
IIA. Sammanfattning av geofysisk aktivitet 28-2100Z till 29-2100Z
The geomagnetic field was at unsettled to severe storm levels. A recurrent coronal hole was responsible for the initial elevated conditions. At approximately 29/1155Z the first of two transients associated with the first two X-class flares from late on the 27th and early on the 28th passed the NASA/ACE space craft. The second occurred at approximately 29/1830Z and was responsible for the severe storm conditions seen late in the period. The greater than 10 MeV proton fluxes at geosynchronous orbit achieved event levels at 28/2335Z and reached a maximum of 121 pfu at 29/1530Z. The greater than 2 MeV electron fluxes at geosynchronous orbit reached high levels today.
IIB. Prognos för geofysisk aktivitet
The geomagnetic field is expected to be at predominantly active to major storm levels with severe storm condition anticipated. Another transient passage is expected between 30/0600 and 1200Z on day one of the period. The greater than 10 MeV proton fluxes should remain above threshold levels through day one of the interval.
III. Chans för solutbrott från 30 May till 01 Jun
M-klass75%75%75%
X-klass25%25%25%
Proton80%50%25%
PCAFin progress
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
  Observerad       29 May 138
  Prognoserat   30 May-01 Jun  145/140/135
  90 Day Mean        29 May 125
V. Geomagnetiskt A-index
  Observerad Afr/Ap 28 May  022/036
  Förväntat     Afr/Ap 29 May  050/060
  Prognoserat    Afr/Ap 30 May-01 Jun  050/060-025/040-015/025
VI. Chanser för geomagnetisk aktivitet från 30 May till 01 Jun
A. Medelhöga breddgrader
Aktivt25%50%30%
Små stormförhållanden35%25%15%
Svåra stormförhållanden35%15%05%
B. Höga breddgrader
Aktivt20%30%35%
Små stormförhållanden35%35%20%
Svåra stormförhållanden40%30%15%

Gå till översikt idag

Stöd SpaceWeatherLive.com!

För att vara tillgängliga vid stora norrskensutbrott måsta vi ha kraftiga servrar som kan hantera alla besökare. Donera och stöd vårt projekt, så att vi kan finnas online även under stora stormar!

79%

Rymdvädersfakta

Senaste X-utbrottet10/09/2017X8.2
Senaste M-utbrottet29/05/2020M1.1
Senaste geomagnetiska stormen20/04/2020Kp5 (G1)
Fläckfria dagar
Last 365 days288 dagar
2020157 dagar (70%)
Senaste dag utan solfläckar20/07/2020

I dag i historien*

Solutbrott
12004X1.0
22004M3.0
32004M2.8
42002M1.8
52004M1.2
ApG
1199427G1
2200122G1
3200019G2
4200516
5200315
*sedan 1994

Sociala medier