Viewing archive of tisdag, 27 maj 2003
Solaktivitetsrapport
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Rapport för sol- och geofysisk aktivitet 2003 May 27 2200 UTCSkapad av NOAA © SWPC och bearbetad av SpaceWeatherLive.com
USAF/NOAA rapport för sol- och geofysisk aktivitet
SDF Nummer 147 publicerat klockan 2200Z på 27 May 2003IA. Analys av solfläcksgrupper och solaktivitet från 26-2100Z till 27-2100Z Solar activity was at moderate levels. Region 365
(S07W19) produced two M-class events the largest of which was a long
duration M1.6/1f at 0626Z. Region 365 has shown rapid growth since
yesterday nearly doubling in area coverage. Mixing polarities are
evident in the leader spots forming a beta-gamma-delta
configuration. Analysis of LASCO imagery indicates a slow halo CME
associated with the M1 flare from 26/1637Z and a faster halo CME
associated with the M1.6 flare mentioned above. Estimated plane of
sky speed for the fast CME was 700 km/s. Three new regions were
numbered today: Region 371 (S13W10), Region 372 (S14W03), and
Region 373 (N08E81).
IB. Prognos för solaktivitet
Solar activity is expected to be at
low to moderate levels. Region 365 is expected to produce C-class
flare and isolated M-class events.
IIA. Sammanfattning av geofysisk aktivitet 26-2100Z till 27-2100Z
The geomagnetic field was at unsettled to active levels. Elevated
solar wind speed near 500 km/s resulted in a disturbed geomagnetic
field. The greater than 2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit
reached high levels.
IIB. Prognos för geofysisk aktivitet
The geomagnetic field is
expected to be at unsettled to minor storm levels. A coronal hole
high speed flow is expected on day one of the period. Weak CME
shock effects are possible on day two and day three of the period.
III. Chans för solutbrott från 28 May till 30 May
| M-klass | 20% | 25% | 25% |
| X-klass | 05% | 05% | 05% |
| Proton | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| PCAF | green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observerad 27 May 129 Prognoserat 28 May-30 May 135/140/140 90 Day Mean 27 May 125
V. Geomagnetiskt A-index
Observerad Afr/Ap 26 May 013/018 Förväntat Afr/Ap 27 May 020/022 Prognoserat Afr/Ap 28 May-30 May 020/025-015/015-015/015
VI. Chanser för geomagnetisk aktivitet från 28 May till 30 May
| A. Medelhöga breddgrader | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Aktivt | 40% | 35% | 30% |
| Små stormförhållanden | 20% | 15% | 10% |
| Svåra stormförhållanden | 10% | 05% | 05% |
| B. Höga breddgrader | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Aktivt | 45% | 35% | 35% |
| Små stormförhållanden | 25% | 20% | 20% |
| Svåra stormförhållanden | 10% | 05% | 05% |
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Rymdvädersfakta
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