Viewing archive of fredag, 2 maj 2003
Solaktivitetsrapport
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Rapport för sol- och geofysisk aktivitet 2003 May 02 2200 UTCSkapad av NOAA © SWPC och bearbetad av SpaceWeatherLive.com
USAF/NOAA rapport för sol- och geofysisk aktivitet
SDF Nummer 122 publicerat klockan 2200Z på 02 May 2003IA. Analys av solfläcksgrupper och solaktivitet från 01-2100Z till 02-2100Z Solar activity was at moderate levels. Region 345
(S17W34) produced a long duration M1/Sf flare at 0308Z. This region
has developed in magnetic complexity and is now a beta-gamma
magnetic configuration. Region 349 (S13W21) is still the largest
region on the disk and has remained relatively stable over the past
twenty-four hours. Region 344(N15W67) continues its gradual decay
and has simplified to a beta magnetic configuration.
IB. Prognos för solaktivitet
Solar activity is expected to be at
low to moderate levels. Regions 345 and 349 have the potential for
M-class flares.
IIA. Sammanfattning av geofysisk aktivitet 01-2100Z till 02-2100Z
The geomagnetic field was at unsettled to major storm levels.
Elevated solar wind speed combined with a period of southward Bz
resulted in one period of isolated major storm levels.
IIB. Prognos för geofysisk aktivitet
The geomagnetic field is
expected to be at quiet to isolated active conditions. On day one,
active conditions are expected during local nighttime hours and the
solar wind velocity is expected to gradually decline. Isolated
active conditions are possible on day three as another coronal hole
rotates into a geo-effective position.
III. Chans för solutbrott från 03 May till 05 May
| M-klass | 60% | 60% | 50% |
| X-klass | 10% | 10% | 05% |
| Proton | 05% | 05% | 01% |
| PCAF | green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observerad 02 May 144 Prognoserat 03 May-05 May 135/130/120 90 Day Mean 02 May 128
V. Geomagnetiskt A-index
Observerad Afr/Ap 01 May 029/040 Förväntat Afr/Ap 02 May 023/020 Prognoserat Afr/Ap 03 May-05 May 015/015-010/010-015/015
VI. Chanser för geomagnetisk aktivitet från 03 May till 05 May
| A. Medelhöga breddgrader | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Aktivt | 30% | 20% | 30% |
| Små stormförhållanden | 15% | 10% | 15% |
| Svåra stormförhållanden | 05% | 01% | 05% |
| B. Höga breddgrader | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Aktivt | 40% | 25% | 40% |
| Små stormförhållanden | 25% | 15% | 25% |
| Svåra stormförhållanden | 10% | 05% | 10% |
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