Viewing archive of tisdag, 29 april 2003
Solaktivitetsrapport
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Rapport för sol- och geofysisk aktivitet 2003 Apr 29 2200 UTCSkapad av NOAA © SWPC och bearbetad av SpaceWeatherLive.com
USAF/NOAA rapport för sol- och geofysisk aktivitet
SDF Nummer 119 publicerat klockan 2200Z på 29 Apr 2003IA. Analys av solfläcksgrupper och solaktivitet från 28-2100Z till 29-2100Z Solar activity was at moderate levels. Region 337
(S16W67) produced an M1/1f flare at 0459Z. Region 337 appears to
have lost its delta magnetic configuration since producing the M1
flare, but continues to produce minor C-class flares. Region 349
(S13E20) has exhibited significant growth in area and spot count
over the last twenty-four hours, and now exceeds 40 spots and over
500 millionths of white light coverage. This region has produced a
number of minor C-class flares.
IB. Prognos för solaktivitet
Solar activity is expected to be at
low to moderate levels. Regions 337 and 349 have the potential for
M-class events. Region 349 could produce a major event.
IIA. Sammanfattning av geofysisk aktivitet 28-2100Z till 29-2100Z
The geomagnetic field was at quiet to minor storm levels. Solar wind
velocity remains elevated near 550 km/s. Transient flow has
produced periods of southward Bz that resulted in isolated active
and minor storm conditions.
IIB. Prognos för geofysisk aktivitet
The geomagnetic field is
expected to be unsettled to active. A returning coronal hole is
expected to rotate into a geo-effective position on day one of the
period and may produce active to isolated minor storm levels during
the period.
III. Chans för solutbrott från 30 Apr till 02 May
| M-klass | 50% | 50% | 50% |
| X-klass | 10% | 10% | 10% |
| Proton | 05% | 05% | 05% |
| PCAF | green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observerad 29 Apr 155 Prognoserat 30 Apr-02 May 155/150/140 90 Day Mean 29 Apr 127
V. Geomagnetiskt A-index
Observerad Afr/Ap 28 Apr 009/020 Förväntat Afr/Ap 29 Apr 012/012 Prognoserat Afr/Ap 30 Apr-02 May 012/015-015/025-015/025
VI. Chanser för geomagnetisk aktivitet från 30 Apr till 02 May
| A. Medelhöga breddgrader | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Aktivt | 25% | 35% | 35% |
| Små stormförhållanden | 10% | 20% | 20% |
| Svåra stormförhållanden | 05% | 10% | 10% |
| B. Höga breddgrader | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Aktivt | 35% | 45% | 45% |
| Små stormförhållanden | 20% | 30% | 30% |
| Svåra stormförhållanden | 10% | 15% | 15% |
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