Viewing archive of måndag, 28 april 2003
Solaktivitetsrapport
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Rapport för sol- och geofysisk aktivitet 2003 Apr 28 2200 UTCSkapad av NOAA © SWPC och bearbetad av SpaceWeatherLive.com
USAF/NOAA rapport för sol- och geofysisk aktivitet
SDF Nummer 118 publicerat klockan 2200Z på 28 Apr 2003IA. Analys av solfläcksgrupper och solaktivitet från 27-2100Z till 28-2100Z Solar activity decreased to low levels today. Region
337 (S14W53) produced the largest flare of the period, a C4.4/Sf
event occurring at 28/0436Z. There was little change to the
penumbral coverage and magnetic complexity noted during the period.
Region 338 (N18W98) has rotated beyond the west limb, although it
did manage to trigger several lesser C-class flares throughout the
day. Region 344 (N16W14) produced the second largest flare of the
interval, a C3.3/Sf occurring at 28/1815Z. This region maintains a
very weak delta complex and magnetically appears to be showing
slight decay. No new regions were numbered today.
IB. Prognos för solaktivitet
Solar activity is expected to be at
low to moderate levels.
IIA. Sammanfattning av geofysisk aktivitet 27-2100Z till 28-2100Z
The geomagnetic field was at quiet to minor storm levels. A very
weak signature from the NASA/ACE data indicate a transient may have
passed around 28/1200Z although the elevated geomagnetic conditions
are believed to be from a recurrent coronal hole. The greater than
2 MeV electron fluxes at geosynchronous orbit have again reached
high levels.
IIB. Prognos för geofysisk aktivitet
The geomagnetic field is
expected to be at predominantly unsettled to active for days one and
two of the period as the current coronal hole begins to wane. Minor
storm conditions may occur on day three due to the onset of another
favorably positioned recurrent coronal hole.
III. Chans för solutbrott från 29 Apr till 01 May
| M-klass | 40% | 35% | 35% |
| X-klass | 05% | 01% | 01% |
| Proton | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| PCAF | green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observerad 28 Apr 152 Prognoserat 29 Apr-01 May 150/150/145 90 Day Mean 28 Apr 127
V. Geomagnetiskt A-index
Observerad Afr/Ap 27 Apr 011/015 Förväntat Afr/Ap 28 Apr 012/020 Prognoserat Afr/Ap 29 Apr-01 May 012/015-012/015-015/020
VI. Chanser för geomagnetisk aktivitet från 29 Apr till 01 May
| A. Medelhöga breddgrader | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Aktivt | 25% | 25% | 35% |
| Små stormförhållanden | 10% | 10% | 20% |
| Svåra stormförhållanden | 05% | 05% | 10% |
| B. Höga breddgrader | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Aktivt | 35% | 35% | 45% |
| Små stormförhållanden | 20% | 20% | 30% |
| Svåra stormförhållanden | 10% | 10% | 15% |
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