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Solaktivitetsrapport

Rapport för sol- och geofysisk aktivitet 2003 Apr 27 2200 UTC
Skapad av NOAA © SWPC och bearbetad av SpaceWeatherLive.com

USAF/NOAA rapport för sol- och geofysisk aktivitet

SDF Nummer 117 publicerat klockan 2200Z på 27 Apr 2003

IA. Analys av solfläcksgrupper och solaktivitet från 26-2100Z till 27-2100Z

Solar activity decreased to moderate levels. Region 338 (N18W85) produced an M2.5/Sf at 26/2340Z and an M1.7/Sf at 27/1532Z which were the largest flares of the period. This region was again responsible for the vast majority of the activity observed today. Proximity to the west limb hinders analysis of changes in magnetic structure today. Region 344 (N16W00) showed slight growth today and retains a beta-gamma-delta structure. The weak delta complex is evident in the northwestern quadrant of the dominant trailing spot. Region 337 (S14W40) underwent rapid growth during the period adding many additional spots to the south of the main body of this group. This region also depicts a beta-gamma-delta magnetic structure. A 34 degree solar filament erupted yesterday at approximately 26/2000Z which resulted in a streamer CME that does not appear as though it will become geoeffective No new regions were numbered today.
IB. Prognos för solaktivitet
Solar activity is expected to be at moderate levels. Region 338 has begun to transit the disk but remains capable of producing a major flare.
IIA. Sammanfattning av geofysisk aktivitet 26-2100Z till 27-2100Z
The geomagnetic field was at quiet to active levels. An increase of 150 km/s in the solar wind speed during the period is believed to be the result of a recurrent coronal hole. The greater than 2 MeV electron fluxes at geosynchronous orbit reached high levels again today.
IIB. Prognos för geofysisk aktivitet
The geomagnetic field is expected to be at predominantly unsettled to active levels through the interval. High latitude minor storm conditions are possible on day one and into day two due to a favorably positioned coronal hole.
III. Chans för solutbrott från 28 Apr till 30 Apr
M-klass70%50%50%
X-klass15%10%05%
Proton05%01%01%
PCAFgreen
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
  Observerad       27 Apr 154
  Prognoserat   28 Apr-30 Apr  155/160/155
  90 Day Mean        27 Apr 127
V. Geomagnetiskt A-index
  Observerad Afr/Ap 26 Apr  009/015
  Förväntat     Afr/Ap 27 Apr  012/012
  Prognoserat    Afr/Ap 28 Apr-30 Apr  015/015-012/015-012/015
VI. Chanser för geomagnetisk aktivitet från 28 Apr till 30 Apr
A. Medelhöga breddgrader
Aktivt35%30%25%
Små stormförhållanden20%15%10%
Svåra stormförhållanden10%05%05%
B. Höga breddgrader
Aktivt45%35%30%
Små stormförhållanden30%25%15%
Svåra stormförhållanden15%10%05%

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