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Solaktivitetsrapport

Rapport för sol- och geofysisk aktivitet 2003 Apr 26 2200 UTC
Skapad av NOAA © SWPC och bearbetad av SpaceWeatherLive.com

USAF/NOAA rapport för sol- och geofysisk aktivitet

SDF Nummer 116 publicerat klockan 2200Z på 26 Apr 2003

IA. Analys av solfläcksgrupper och solaktivitet från 25-2100Z till 26-2100Z

Solar activity increased to high levels. An abundance of activity was observed today, most of which occurred in Region 338 (N18W71). Region 338 produced a very impulsive M7.0 x-ray flare at 26/0807Z. This region also produced an M2.1/1f flare at 26/0058Z and an M2.1/Sn flare at 26/0306Z along with multiple C-class events. The delta magnetic complex remains intact and penumbral coverage appears to be oscillating with this regions flare production. Region 344 (N16E13) has yet to produce any flare activity although the white-light penumbral coverage and the magnetic complexity of this region have shown rapid growth during the past 24 hours. Yesterday, this region was a simple beta complex which has since developed into a beta-gamma-delta magnetic structure. Region 337 (S14W26) was quiescent through most of the period. Regions 347 (S20E36), 348 (S36E58), and 349 (S14E60) were newly numbered today.
IB. Prognos för solaktivitet
Activity is expected to be at moderate levels. Region 338 remains capable of producing an isolated major flare.
IIA. Sammanfattning av geofysisk aktivitet 25-2100Z till 26-2100Z
The geomagnetic field was at quiet to active levels. Influences from yesterdays favorably positioned coronal hole have waned as the solar wind speed has dropped to approximately 400 km/s. The greater than 2 MeV electron fluxes reached high levels today.
IIB. Prognos för geofysisk aktivitet
The geomagnetic field is expected to be at unsettled to active levels. Minor storm conditions are possible with the onset of a favorably positioned coronal hole on days one and two. Elevated field levels are possible through the interval due to weak transient passages resulting from the flare activity of the past several days.
III. Chans för solutbrott från 27 Apr till 29 Apr
M-klass70%70%50%
X-klass15%15%05%
Proton05%05%01%
PCAFgreen
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
  Observerad       26 Apr 144
  Prognoserat   27 Apr-29 Apr  150/145/140
  90 Day Mean        26 Apr 126
V. Geomagnetiskt A-index
  Observerad Afr/Ap 25 Apr  019/032
  Förväntat     Afr/Ap 26 Apr  010/015
  Prognoserat    Afr/Ap 27 Apr-29 Apr  020/025-015/020-012/015
VI. Chanser för geomagnetisk aktivitet från 27 Apr till 29 Apr
A. Medelhöga breddgrader
Aktivt35%30%25%
Små stormförhållanden20%15%15%
Svåra stormförhållanden10%05%05%
B. Höga breddgrader
Aktivt40%35%30%
Små stormförhållanden30%20%10%
Svåra stormförhållanden15%10%05%

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