Viewing archive of onsdag, 23 april 2003
Solaktivitetsrapport
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Rapport för sol- och geofysisk aktivitet 2003 Apr 23 2200 UTCSkapad av NOAA © SWPC och bearbetad av SpaceWeatherLive.com
USAF/NOAA rapport för sol- och geofysisk aktivitet
SDF Nummer 113 publicerat klockan 2200Z på 23 Apr 2003IA. Analys av solfläcksgrupper och solaktivitet från 22-2100Z till 23-2100Z Solar activity increased to high levels this period.
Region 338 (N18W32) produced an M5/1n flare at 23/0106Z. Type II
(513 km/s) and Type IV radio sweeps, and a 380 sfu tenflare were
associated with this event. A partial halo CME was also detected on
LASCO imagery. An M2/1f flare also occurred in this region at
23/1556Z. This complex region continues to develop in both size and
magnetic complexity. Region 339 (N16W84) was quite active as it
approaches the west limb. It produced several C-class flares, the
largest being a C5 flare at 23/1213Z. No significant changes were
observed in the remaining active regions. New Region 343 (N06E60)
was numbered today.
IB. Prognos för solaktivitet
Solar activity is expected to be at
moderate levels. Region 338 maintains potential for further M-class
activity.
IIA. Sammanfattning av geofysisk aktivitet 22-2100Z till 23-2100Z
The geomagnetic field ranged from quiet to active levels with
isolated minor storm periods at high latitudes. Elevated solar wind
speeds near 500 km/s are responsible for the disturbed periods. The
greater than 2 MeV electrons at geosynchronous orbit reached high
levels again today.
IIB. Prognos för geofysisk aktivitet
The geomagnetic field is
expected to be at unsettled to minor storm levels. Ongoing high
speed coronal hole flow will likely be enhanced by transient flow
over the next three days. Weak impact from the April 22, M2 flare
and CME are possible on day one. There is a higher probability for
CME impacts on days two and three from the M5 and associated CME
that occurred early this period.
III. Chans för solutbrott från 24 Apr till 26 Apr
| M-klass | 40% | 40% | 40% |
| X-klass | 05% | 05% | 05% |
| Proton | 05% | 05% | 05% |
| PCAF | green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observerad 23 Apr 133 Prognoserat 24 Apr-26 Apr 135/140/145 90 Day Mean 23 Apr 126
V. Geomagnetiskt A-index
Observerad Afr/Ap 22 Apr 013/022 Förväntat Afr/Ap 23 Apr 015/020 Prognoserat Afr/Ap 24 Apr-26 Apr 020/020-020/020-015/015
VI. Chanser för geomagnetisk aktivitet från 24 Apr till 26 Apr
| A. Medelhöga breddgrader | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Aktivt | 30% | 40% | 30% |
| Små stormförhållanden | 20% | 30% | 20% |
| Svåra stormförhållanden | 05% | 10% | 05% |
| B. Höga breddgrader | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Aktivt | 40% | 50% | 40% |
| Små stormförhållanden | 30% | 35% | 30% |
| Svåra stormförhållanden | 10% | 15% | 10% |
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Rymdvädersfakta
| Senaste X-utbrottet | 2024/03/28 | X1.1 |
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| Fläckfria dagar | |
|---|---|
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