Viewing archive of tisdag, 15 april 2003
Solaktivitetsrapport
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Rapport för sol- och geofysisk aktivitet 2003 Apr 15 2200 UTCSkapad av NOAA © SWPC och bearbetad av SpaceWeatherLive.com
USAF/NOAA rapport för sol- och geofysisk aktivitet
SDF Nummer 105 publicerat klockan 2200Z på 15 Apr 2003IA. Analys av solfläcksgrupper och solaktivitet från 14-2100Z till 15-2100Z Solar activity was at very low levels. The largest
event was B4 flare at 15/1356Z on the west limb near Region 330
(N09W86). Region 334 (S08E02) produced a couple of minor B-class
events and exhibited a number of point brightenings and plage
fluctuations. The only other significant activity was an eleven
degree disappearing solar filament that lifted off near N21E29.
IB. Prognos för solaktivitet
Solar activity is expected to be at
very low to low levels. Regions 330 and 334 have the potential for
C-class activity.
IIA. Sammanfattning av geofysisk aktivitet 14-2100Z till 15-2100Z
The geomagnetic field was at unsettled to minor storm levels. Solar
wind velocity was elevated near 575 km/s and a prolonged period of
southward Bz produced active conditions for most of the day with one
period of isolated minor storm levels. By the end of the day Bz
shifted northward and activity has subsided to unsettled levels.
Greater than 2 MeV electron flux reached high levels.
IIB. Prognos för geofysisk aktivitet
The geomagnetic field is
expected to be at unsettled to active levels. A large southern
coronal hole has rotated into a geo-effective position and is
expected to produce active conditions over the next few days. There
is a possibility of isolated minor storm conditions during the
period.
III. Chans för solutbrott från 16 Apr till 18 Apr
| M-klass | 10% | 10% | 10% |
| X-klass | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Proton | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| PCAF | green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observerad 15 Apr 101 Prognoserat 16 Apr-18 Apr 095/090/095 90 Day Mean 15 Apr 128
V. Geomagnetiskt A-index
Observerad Afr/Ap 14 Apr 013/016 Förväntat Afr/Ap 15 Apr 025/023 Prognoserat Afr/Ap 16 Apr-18 Apr 015/020-015/015-015/015
VI. Chanser för geomagnetisk aktivitet från 16 Apr till 18 Apr
| A. Medelhöga breddgrader | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Aktivt | 40% | 45% | 35% |
| Små stormförhållanden | 20% | 25% | 15% |
| Svåra stormförhållanden | 05% | 10% | 05% |
| B. Höga breddgrader | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Aktivt | 35% | 40% | 35% |
| Små stormförhållanden | 25% | 30% | 25% |
| Svåra stormförhållanden | 05% | 15% | 10% |
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