Viewing archive of lördag, 15 mars 2003

Solaktivitetsrapport

Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Rapport för sol- och geofysisk aktivitet 2003 Mar 15 2200 UTC
Skapad av NOAA © SWPC och bearbetad av SpaceWeatherLive.com

USAF/NOAA rapport för sol- och geofysisk aktivitet

SDF Nummer 074 publicerat klockan 2200Z på 15 Mar 2003

IA. Analys av solfläcksgrupper och solaktivitet från 14-2100Z till 15-2100Z

Solar activity was at low levels. Region 314 (S13W14) produced a C8.4 flare at 15/2016 UTC and a C3.7 flare at 15/1530 UTC. This region has continued its rapid growth, more than doubling in area coverage over the past twenty-four hours to 220 millionths. Increased magnetic complexity in the trailing spots of Region 314 suggest a weak delta configuration may be forming. Region 306 (N07W33) appears to be breaking up and may be developing a weak delta configuration in the northern portion of the largest spot. NOAA/SXI imagery indicates a new region, rotating onto the east limb at N17, as the source of a number of B-class flares and one minor C-class flare. New Region 315 (N03W74) was numbered today.
IB. Prognos för solaktivitet
Solar activity is expected to be at low levels. Regions 306, 314 and the east limb region at N17 have C-class potential. Regions 306 and 314 have a slight chance of M-class activity.
IIA. Sammanfattning av geofysisk aktivitet 14-2100Z till 15-2100Z
The geomagnetic field has been at unsettled to active levels with one period of minor storm levels. Solar wind velocity has been steady at 600 km/s and Bz has been, on average, slightly southward.
IIB. Prognos för geofysisk aktivitet
The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet to active levels. Continued high speed stream effects are expected on day one and day two of the period. CME effects from the DSF on 14 March are possible on day three.
III. Chans för solutbrott från 16 Mar till 18 Mar
M-klass25%25%25%
X-klass01%01%01%
Proton01%01%01%
PCAFgreen
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
  Observerad       15 Mar 131
  Prognoserat   16 Mar-18 Mar  135/140/140
  90 Day Mean        15 Mar 141
V. Geomagnetiskt A-index
  Observerad Afr/Ap 14 Mar  016/025
  Förväntat     Afr/Ap 15 Mar  021/022
  Prognoserat    Afr/Ap 16 Mar-18 Mar  015/020-015/020-015/020
VI. Chanser för geomagnetisk aktivitet från 16 Mar till 18 Mar
A. Medelhöga breddgrader
Aktivt35%35%35%
Små stormförhållanden10%10%10%
Svåra stormförhållanden05%05%05%
B. Höga breddgrader
Aktivt35%35%35%
Små stormförhållanden20%15%15%
Svåra stormförhållanden05%05%05%

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