Viewing archive of fredag, 14 mars 2003

Solaktivitetsrapport

Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Rapport för sol- och geofysisk aktivitet 2003 Mar 14 2200 UTC
Skapad av NOAA © SWPC och bearbetad av SpaceWeatherLive.com

USAF/NOAA rapport för sol- och geofysisk aktivitet

SDF Nummer 073 publicerat klockan 2200Z på 14 Mar 2003

IA. Analys av solfläcksgrupper och solaktivitet från 13-2100Z till 14-2100Z

Solar activity was at very low levels. The largest event was a B9.2 X-ray enhancement at 14/1825 UTC. The most likely source of this enhancement was a disappearing solar filament that lifted off near S25W55. The western most 30 degrees of the large filament lifted off at 14/1730 UTC and was associated with a CME, as seen in LASCO imagery. There is not enough data at the time of this report to determine if the CME will be geo-effective. Two other DSFs occurred during the past twenty-four hours. A 10 degree filament lifted off near S16W27 at 13/2030 UTC and a 13 degree filament lifted off near N40E45 at 13/2200 UTC. The 13 degree DSF was associated with a CME off the northeast limb but does not appear to be Earth directed. New Region 314 (S14E00) rapidly appeared on the visible disk and grew to 80 millionths. Magnetic complexity of Region 314 also rapidly increased to a beta-gamma configuration.
IB. Prognos för solaktivitet
Solar activity is expected to be at low levels. Regions 306 (N07W19) and 314 have C-class potential and a slight chance for M-class events.
IIA. Sammanfattning av geofysisk aktivitet 13-2100Z till 14-2100Z
The geomagnetic field was at quiet to active levels. Early in the period solar wind velocity increased to over 600 km/s marking the onset of the expected high speed stream. Fluctuations in the Bz component of the interplanetary magnetic field to -8 nT resulted in isolated active conditions.
IIB. Prognos för geofysisk aktivitet
The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet to active levels with isolated minor storm levels possible. High speed stream effects are expected to continue through the forecast period.
III. Chans för solutbrott från 15 Mar till 17 Mar
M-klass15%15%15%
X-klass01%01%01%
Proton01%01%01%
PCAFgreen
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
  Observerad       14 Mar 139
  Prognoserat   15 Mar-17 Mar  140/145/145
  90 Day Mean        14 Mar 141
V. Geomagnetiskt A-index
  Observerad Afr/Ap 13 Mar  008/015
  Förväntat     Afr/Ap 14 Mar  015/020
  Prognoserat    Afr/Ap 15 Mar-17 Mar  015/015-012/015-015/020
VI. Chanser för geomagnetisk aktivitet från 15 Mar till 17 Mar
A. Medelhöga breddgrader
Aktivt35%35%25%
Små stormförhållanden10%10%05%
Svåra stormförhållanden05%01%01%
B. Höga breddgrader
Aktivt40%35%35%
Små stormförhållanden20%20%15%
Svåra stormförhållanden05%05%05%

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