Viewing archive of fredag, 21 februari 2003
Solaktivitetsrapport
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Rapport för sol- och geofysisk aktivitet 2003 Feb 21 2200 UTCSkapad av NOAA © SWPC och bearbetad av SpaceWeatherLive.com
USAF/NOAA rapport för sol- och geofysisk aktivitet
SDF Nummer 052 publicerat klockan 2200Z på 21 Feb 2003IA. Analys av solfläcksgrupper och solaktivitet från 20-2100Z till 21-2100Z Solar activity was low. Region 290 (N17E05) continues
in a slow growth phase and produced several minor C-class events,
the largest being an impulsive C4 flare at 21/1950Z. This moderately
complex region may have a weak delta configuration in the leader
spots. Region 289 (N09W90) remains quite active as it rotates
around the west limb. This region has also been in a slow growth
phase since its development on the visible disk on 18 Feb. New
Region 291 was numbered today.
IB. Prognos för solaktivitet
Solar activity is expected to continue
at low levels, though there is a small chance for an M-class flare
from Region 290.
IIA. Sammanfattning av geofysisk aktivitet 20-2100Z till 21-2100Z
The geomagnetic field was quiet to active. The disturbed periods are
due to a declining high speed solar wind stream. This high speed
stream began the period near 700 km/s, but declined slowly
throughout the day to 550 km/s by the end of the period.
IIB. Prognos för geofysisk aktivitet
The geomagnetic field is
expected to continue at mostly quiet to unsettled levels with
isolated active periods over the next three days.
III. Chans för solutbrott från 22 Feb till 24 Feb
| M-klass | 20% | 20% | 20% |
| X-klass | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Proton | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| PCAF | green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observerad 21 Feb 120 Prognoserat 22 Feb-24 Feb 120/125/125 90 Day Mean 21 Feb 145
V. Geomagnetiskt A-index
Observerad Afr/Ap 20 Feb 012/016 Förväntat Afr/Ap 21 Feb 010/012 Prognoserat Afr/Ap 22 Feb-24 Feb 010/012-005/010-010/010
VI. Chanser för geomagnetisk aktivitet från 22 Feb till 24 Feb
| A. Medelhöga breddgrader | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Aktivt | 25% | 20% | 25% |
| Små stormförhållanden | 10% | 05% | 10% |
| Svåra stormförhållanden | 05% | 01% | 05% |
| B. Höga breddgrader | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Aktivt | 40% | 30% | 30% |
| Små stormförhållanden | 20% | 15% | 15% |
| Svåra stormförhållanden | 10% | 05% | 05% |
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Rymdvädersfakta
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