Viewing archive of onsdag, 19 februari 2003
Solaktivitetsrapport
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Rapport för sol- och geofysisk aktivitet 2003 Feb 19 2200 UTCSkapad av NOAA © SWPC och bearbetad av SpaceWeatherLive.com
USAF/NOAA rapport för sol- och geofysisk aktivitet
SDF Nummer 050 publicerat klockan 2200Z på 19 Feb 2003IA. Analys av solfläcksgrupper och solaktivitet från 18-2100Z till 19-2100Z Solar activity was at low levels. Region 290 (N18E30)
produced a C1.8/Sf at 19/1437 UTC. This region has shown growth in
area coverage, and has formed a beta-gamma magnetic configuration in
the leader spots. Region 289 (N09W66) has shown rapid growth in the
last 24 hours, but has maintained a beta magnetic configuration.
Activity from Region 289 consisted of bright surging along the
southwest portion of the region.
IB. Prognos för solaktivitet
Solar activity is expected to be at
low levels with a slight chance of isolated M-class activity from
Regions 289 and 290.
IIA. Sammanfattning av geofysisk aktivitet 18-2100Z till 19-2100Z
The geomagnetic field was at quiet to unsettled levels. The
transient effects that began yesterday, and produced a structured
solar wind, appear to be ending. At 19/1400 UTC, the steady decline
in solar wind velocity reached a minimum near 500 km/s. Solar wind
velocity has since increased to 560 km/s. Bz show signs of
returning to the fluctuating signature of a high speed stream.
IIB. Prognos för geofysisk aktivitet
The geomagnetic field is
expected to be at quiet to isolated active conditions. An
equatorial coronal hole has entered a geo-effective position, and is
expected to produce high speed stream effects.
III. Chans för solutbrott från 20 Feb till 22 Feb
| M-klass | 15% | 15% | 10% |
| X-klass | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Proton | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| PCAF | green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observerad 19 Feb 116 Prognoserat 20 Feb-22 Feb 115/110/110 90 Day Mean 19 Feb 146
V. Geomagnetiskt A-index
Observerad Afr/Ap 18 Feb 017/017 Förväntat Afr/Ap 19 Feb 012/012 Prognoserat Afr/Ap 20 Feb-22 Feb 015/015-012/012-012/012
VI. Chanser för geomagnetisk aktivitet från 20 Feb till 22 Feb
| A. Medelhöga breddgrader | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Aktivt | 25% | 20% | 15% |
| Små stormförhållanden | 10% | 10% | 05% |
| Svåra stormförhållanden | 05% | 05% | 01% |
| B. Höga breddgrader | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Aktivt | 30% | 25% | 25% |
| Små stormförhållanden | 25% | 20% | 15% |
| Svåra stormförhållanden | 10% | 10% | 05% |
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Rymdvädersfakta
| Senaste X-utbrottet | 2024/03/28 | X1.1 |
| Senaste M-utbrottet | 2024/04/19 | M1.0 |
| Senaste geomagnetiska stormen | 2024/04/19 | Kp7 (G3) |
| Fläckfria dagar | |
|---|---|
| Senaste dag utan solfläckar | 2022/06/08 |
| Månadsvis faktiskt antal solfläckar | |
|---|---|
| mars 2024 | 104.9 -19.8 |