Viewing archive of torsdag, 30 januari 2003
Solaktivitetsrapport
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Rapport för sol- och geofysisk aktivitet 2003 Jan 30 2200 UTCSkapad av NOAA © SWPC och bearbetad av SpaceWeatherLive.com
USAF/NOAA rapport för sol- och geofysisk aktivitet
SDF Nummer 030 publicerat klockan 2200Z på 30 Jan 2003IA. Analys av solfläcksgrupper och solaktivitet från 29-2100Z till 30-2100Z Solar activity was very low. The day's most dramatic
event was the disappearance of a large n-s oriented filament from
the north-central disk at approximately 1000 UTC. This event was
seen as a CME further out in the corona, taking on the appearance of
a partial halo. This ejecta has an earthward component, and is
expected to pass on February 2. Otherwise, little of significance
occurred.
IB. Prognos för solaktivitet
Solar activity is expected to continue
very low to low.
IIA. Sammanfattning av geofysisk aktivitet 29-2100Z till 30-2100Z
The geomagnetic field was at mostly active levels for the past 24
hours. The solar wind radial speed rose to over 500 km/s during the
day, presumably originating from a coronal hole in the western solar
hemisphere. This feature was present last rotation, but did not
affect the magnetosphere to this degree.
IIB. Prognos för geofysisk aktivitet
The geomagnetic field is
expected to vary generally from unsettled to active levels. The
current high speed stream is likely to fuel another day of active
conditions, calming on February 1. On February 2, effects of the CME
seen near midday today are expected, bringing another episode of
active conditions, with a good chance of episodes of minor storm.
III. Chans för solutbrott från 31 Jan till 02 Feb
| M-klass | 10% | 10% | 10% |
| X-klass | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Proton | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| PCAF | green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observerad 30 Jan 121 Prognoserat 31 Jan-02 Feb 125/125/130 90 Day Mean 30 Jan 157
V. Geomagnetiskt A-index
Observerad Afr/Ap 29 Jan 009/014 Förväntat Afr/Ap 30 Jan 018/025 Prognoserat Afr/Ap 31 Jan-02 Feb 015/020-010/010-020/025
VI. Chanser för geomagnetisk aktivitet från 31 Jan till 02 Feb
| A. Medelhöga breddgrader | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Aktivt | 30% | 20% | 40% |
| Små stormförhållanden | 10% | 10% | 20% |
| Svåra stormförhållanden | 05% | 05% | 05% |
| B. Höga breddgrader | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Aktivt | 40% | 30% | 50% |
| Små stormförhållanden | 15% | 10% | 25% |
| Svåra stormförhållanden | 05% | 05% | 05% |
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