Viewing archive of fredag, 3 januari 2003
Solaktivitetsrapport
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Rapport för sol- och geofysisk aktivitet 2003 Jan 03 2200 UTCSkapad av NOAA © SWPC och bearbetad av SpaceWeatherLive.com
USAF/NOAA rapport för sol- och geofysisk aktivitet
SDF Nummer 003 publicerat klockan 2200Z på 03 Jan 2003IA. Analys av solfläcksgrupper och solaktivitet från 02-2100Z till 03-2100Z Solar activity was at low levels. Several low level
C-class flares occurred today. The largest optically correlated
event was a C2.0/Sf flare that occurred at 03/1445 UTC from Region
234 (N19W60) as region underwent steady decay today. Region 242
(S08E48) produced several B and C-class flares while showing areal
growth of spot complex through the period. An eruptive prominence
on the west limb (N22W90) occurred at 03/1506 UTC producing a CME
seen on NASA/LASCO imagery that does not appear to be earth
directed. Regions 243 (S19W34), 244 (S15E58), and 245 (N12E74) were
newly assigned today.
IB. Prognos för solaktivitet
Solar activity is expected to be at
low levels. A very slight chance of an isolated low level M-class
flare is possible from Region 242.
IIA. Sammanfattning av geofysisk aktivitet 02-2100Z till 03-2100Z
The geomagnetic field was predominantly quiet to unsettled. Isolated
active to minor storm conditions were observed between 03/1500 to
1800 UTC due to the effects of a favorably positioned coronal hole.
The greater than 2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit reached
high levels during the past 24 hours.
IIB. Prognos för geofysisk aktivitet
The geomagnetic field is
expected to be at predominantly unsettled to active levels on day
one of the forecast period due to high speed stream coronal hole.
Days two and three should see a return to quiet to unsettled
conditions as the geo-effective coronal hole wanes.
III. Chans för solutbrott från 04 Jan till 06 Jan
| M-klass | 20% | 20% | 20% |
| X-klass | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Proton | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| PCAF | green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observerad 03 Jan 138 Prognoserat 04 Jan-06 Jan 135/140/145 90 Day Mean 03 Jan 164
V. Geomagnetiskt A-index
Observerad Afr/Ap 02 Jan 005/008 Förväntat Afr/Ap 03 Jan 010/015 Prognoserat Afr/Ap 04 Jan-06 Jan 012/015-010/015-005/010
VI. Chanser för geomagnetisk aktivitet från 04 Jan till 06 Jan
| A. Medelhöga breddgrader | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Aktivt | 25% | 25% | 15% |
| Små stormförhållanden | 10% | 05% | 01% |
| Svåra stormförhållanden | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| B. Höga breddgrader | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Aktivt | 30% | 30% | 25% |
| Små stormförhållanden | 10% | 10% | 05% |
| Svåra stormförhållanden | 01% | 01% | 01% |
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