Viewing archive of torsdag, 5 december 2002

Solaktivitetsrapport

Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Rapport för sol- och geofysisk aktivitet 2002 Dec 05 2200 UTC
Skapad av NOAA © SWPC och bearbetad av SpaceWeatherLive.com

USAF/NOAA rapport för sol- och geofysisk aktivitet

SDF Nummer 339 publicerat klockan 2200Z på 05 Dec 2002

IA. Analys av solfläcksgrupper och solaktivitet från 04-2100Z till 05-2100Z

Solar activity was moderate due to a single M-class event during the period. Region 213 (N14E50) produced an impulsive M2/2n event, with associated tenflare and Type II/IV radio sweeps, at 04/2249 UTC. The region appears to be a relatively small sunspot group with minor magnetic complexity, near the somewhat larger Region 212 (N12E35) which remained quiescent during the period. Single C- and B-class x-ray enhancements were also observed without optical correlation later in the period, but otherwise the x-ray emissions from the sun have remained relatively flat. Two new regions were numbered today: 214 (N12W27) and 215 (S18E74). The latter appears to be a return of old Region 191 (S18, L=203) but limb proximity prevents detailed analysis.
IB. Prognos för solaktivitet
Solar activity is expected to be predominantly low, with an increasing trend in chances for isolated moderate flare activity over the course of the next three days.
IIA. Sammanfattning av geofysisk aktivitet 04-2100Z till 05-2100Z
The geomagnetic field was quiet to unsettled. Flux levels for greater than 2 MeV electrons at geosynchronous orbit were observed to briefly exceed threshold for high values around the time of local satellite noon.
IIB. Prognos för geofysisk aktivitet
The geomagnetic field is expected to be quiet to unsettled through day two of the forecast period, with a trend toward more active conditions by day three, due to expected coronal hole effects. Greater than 2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit is expected to be below the high value threshold for the period.
III. Chans för solutbrott från 06 Dec till 08 Dec
M-klass30%30%35%
X-klass01%01%01%
Proton01%01%01%
PCAFgreen
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
  Observerad       05 Dec 149
  Prognoserat   06 Dec-08 Dec  160/170/175
  90 Day Mean        05 Dec  169
V. Geomagnetiskt A-index
  Observerad Afr/Ap 04 Dec  007/012
  Förväntat     Afr/Ap 05 Dec  009/013
  Prognoserat    Afr/Ap 06 Dec-08 Dec  008/012-012/015-018/020
VI. Chanser för geomagnetisk aktivitet från 06 Dec till 08 Dec
A. Medelhöga breddgrader
Aktivt20%25%35%
Små stormförhållanden01%05%10%
Svåra stormförhållanden01%01%01%
B. Höga breddgrader
Aktivt20%30%40%
Små stormförhållanden05%10%15%
Svåra stormförhållanden01%01%05%

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