Visa arkiv av fredag 15 november 2002

Solaktivitetsrapport

Rapport för sol- och geofysisk aktivitet 2002 Nov 15 2200 UTC
Skapad av NOAA © SWPC och bearbetad av SpaceWeatherLive.com

USAF/NOAA rapport för sol- och geofysisk aktivitet

SDF Nummer 319 publicerat klockan 2200Z på 15 Nov 2002

IA. Analys av solfläcksgrupper och solaktivitet från 14-2100Z till 15-2100Z

Solar activity was moderate due to the occurrence of two M-class events, the first being an impulsive M1.0 flare observed at 14/2226 UTC. No corresponding optical report was received, however available H-alpha imagery suggests Region 195 (S15E53) as the likely source. This region appears to be developing a delta configuration in its leading spot, and has grown in size and spot count. At 15/0124 UTC, an optically uncorrelated M2.4 flare occurred. LASCO imagery following this event suggests an east limb source, possibly the newly numbered Region 198 (S16E78), which has just rotated into view. Other activity included a series of C-class events from Region 192 (N13W47), the largest being a C8/Sf at 15/0536 UTC. This region has exhibited significant growth in size and complexity over the past two days. Region 191 (S18W16) remains the largest and most complex region on the visible disk, but produced only minor C-class activity today.
IB. Prognos för solaktivitet
Solar activity is expected to be moderate, with a chance for isolated major flare activity over the next three days. The regions discussed in section 1A above are all likely candidates for notable flare activity.
IIA. Sammanfattning av geofysisk aktivitet 14-2100Z till 15-2100Z
The geomagnetic field was quiet to unsettled.
IIB. Prognos för geofysisk aktivitet
The geomagnetic field is expected to be unsettled to active with isolated minor storm periods possible during the first two days of the forecast period, under the influence of a favorably positioned coronal hole. Predominantly unsettled conditions are expected by day three, along with elevated flux levels for energetic electrons in the wake of the expected coronal hole effects.
III. Chans för solutbrott från 16 Nov till 18 Nov
M-klass75%75%75%
X-klass10%10%10%
Proton05%05%05%
PCAFyellow
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
  Observerad       15 Nov 198
  Prognoserat   16 Nov-18 Nov  200/200/195
  90 Day Mean        15 Nov 177
V. Geomagnetiskt A-index
  Observerad Afr/Ap 14 Nov  005/009
  Förväntat     Afr/Ap 15 Nov  010/011
  Prognoserat    Afr/Ap 16 Nov-18 Nov  020/030-018/025-015/015
VI. Chanser för geomagnetisk aktivitet från 16 Nov till 18 Nov
A. Medelhöga breddgrader
Aktivt40%35%25%
Små stormförhållanden15%10%05%
Svåra stormförhållanden01%01%01%
B. Höga breddgrader
Aktivt45%30%30%
Små stormförhållanden15%15%10%
Svåra stormförhållanden05%05%01%

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