Viewing archive of torsdag, 14 november 2002

Solaktivitetsrapport

Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Rapport för sol- och geofysisk aktivitet 2002 Nov 14 2200 UTC
Skapad av NOAA © SWPC och bearbetad av SpaceWeatherLive.com

USAF/NOAA rapport för sol- och geofysisk aktivitet

SDF Nummer 318 publicerat klockan 2200Z på 14 Nov 2002

IA. Analys av solfläcksgrupper och solaktivitet från 13-2100Z till 14-2100Z

Solar activity was moderate. The largest event was a long duration M1.0 x-ray flare, observed early in the period at 14/0017 UTC, accompanied by an extended parallel ribbon enhancement visible in H-alpha imagery in the central and southeast portion of Region 191 (S18W01). A partial halo CME was evident in LASCO imagery following the flare, but did not appear to be earth-directed. Region 191 appears to have developed a weak delta configuration among its intermediate spots in the last 24 hours. Region 192 (N13W34) exhibited moderate growth today and produced a C-class flare late in the period. Region 195 (S16E65) produced several C-class events, the largest being a C8/1n at 14/1345 UTC. Two new regions were numbered today: 196 (S19W46) and 197 (N25E73).
IB. Prognos för solaktivitet
Solar activity is expected to be moderate, with a slight chance for a major flare during the next three days. Regions 191 and 192 are potential sources of significant flare activity. In addition, Region 197 appears bright in EIT imagery and is expected to rotate into full view as a large region with good flare potential.
IIA. Sammanfattning av geofysisk aktivitet 13-2100Z till 14-2100Z
The geomagnetic field was at quiet to unsettled levels throughout the period.
IIB. Prognos för geofysisk aktivitet
The geomagnetic field is expected to become more active over the course of the forecast period with isolated minor storm periods possible, due to the anticipated influence of a coronal hole rotating into geoeffective heliographic longitudes.
III. Chans för solutbrott från 15 Nov till 17 Nov
M-klass75%75%75%
X-klass10%10%10%
Proton05%05%05%
PCAFgreen
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
  Observerad       14 Nov 184
  Prognoserat   15 Nov-17 Nov  185/185/185
  90 Day Mean        14 Nov 177
V. Geomagnetiskt A-index
  Observerad Afr/Ap 13 Nov  016/012
  Förväntat     Afr/Ap 14 Nov  010/010
  Prognoserat    Afr/Ap 15 Nov-17 Nov  015/020-020/030-018/025
VI. Chanser för geomagnetisk aktivitet från 15 Nov till 17 Nov
A. Medelhöga breddgrader
Aktivt30%40%35%
Små stormförhållanden10%15%10%
Svåra stormförhållanden01%01%01%
B. Höga breddgrader
Aktivt35%45%30%
Små stormförhållanden10%15%15%
Svåra stormförhållanden05%05%05%

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