Viewing archive of onsdag, 13 november 2002
Solaktivitetsrapport
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Rapport för sol- och geofysisk aktivitet 2002 Nov 13 2200 UTCSkapad av NOAA © SWPC och bearbetad av SpaceWeatherLive.com
USAF/NOAA rapport för sol- och geofysisk aktivitet
SDF Nummer 317 publicerat klockan 2200Z på 13 Nov 2002IA. Analys av solfläcksgrupper och solaktivitet från 12-2100Z till 13-2100Z Solar activity fell to low levels for the period. The
largest event was a long duration C3.2 x-ray enhancement, observed
during 13/0341-0552 UTC without a correlated optical report. Some
episodes of lesser C-class flare activity were produced by Region
191 (S18E12) later in the period. This region has continued to
exhibit a trend of increasing size and spot count and moderate
magnetic complexity. Region 180 (S11W94) produced some bright loops
visible in H-alpha early in the period, but was mostly quiescent as
it transited the west limb today. New Regions 194 (S16E43) and 195
(S15E78) were numbered today.
IB. Prognos för solaktivitet
Solar activity is expected to be
moderate during the next three days. Region 191 appears to be a
likely source of M-class activity for the forecast period.
IIA. Sammanfattning av geofysisk aktivitet 12-2100Z till 13-2100Z
The geomagnetic field was predominantly unsettled, with some isolated
quiet and active periods.
IIB. Prognos för geofysisk aktivitet
The geomagnetic field is
expected to be mainly unsettled through day one of the forecast
period. A trend toward more active conditions, with isolated minor
storm conditions possible, is expected by day three of the forecast
period due to the anticipated onset of coronal hole high speed
stream effects.
III. Chans för solutbrott från 14 Nov till 16 Nov
| M-klass | 75% | 75% | 75% |
| X-klass | 10% | 10% | 10% |
| Proton | 05% | 05% | 05% |
| PCAF | green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observerad 13 Nov 182 Prognoserat 14 Nov-16 Nov 175/175/175 90 Day Mean 13 Nov 178
V. Geomagnetiskt A-index
Observerad Afr/Ap 12 Nov 009/014 Förväntat Afr/Ap 13 Nov 011/012 Prognoserat Afr/Ap 14 Nov-16 Nov 010/012-012/015-015/020
VI. Chanser för geomagnetisk aktivitet från 14 Nov till 16 Nov
| A. Medelhöga breddgrader | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Aktivt | 20% | 25% | 35% |
| Små stormförhållanden | 10% | 10% | 15% |
| Svåra stormförhållanden | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| B. Höga breddgrader | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Aktivt | 25% | 35% | 45% |
| Små stormförhållanden | 15% | 15% | 20% |
| Svåra stormförhållanden | 05% | 05% | 10% |
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