Viewing archive of lördag, 9 november 2002

Solaktivitetsrapport

Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Rapport för sol- och geofysisk aktivitet 2002 Nov 09 2200 UTC
Skapad av NOAA © SWPC och bearbetad av SpaceWeatherLive.com

USAF/NOAA rapport för sol- och geofysisk aktivitet

SDF Nummer 313 publicerat klockan 2200Z på 09 Nov 2002 ::::::::CORRECTED COPY::::::::

IA. Analys av solfläcksgrupper och solaktivitet från 08-2100Z till 09-2100Z

Solar activity was moderate. Region 180 (S10W41) produced an M4/2B flare at 09/1323 UTC. The flare was accompanied by type II/IV radio sweeps, a 760 sfu burst at 2695 MHz, and an apparent earth-directed CME. Otherwise only C-class flares occurred, mostly in Region 180 but also from Region 191 (S17E63).
IB. Prognos för solaktivitet
Solar activity is expected to be low to moderate. Region 180 is the most likely source of energetic flares with a slight chance of M-level activity in 191.
IIA. Sammanfattning av geofysisk aktivitet 08-2100Z till 09-2100Z
The geomagnetic field was quiet to unsettled. The field became somewhat disturbed after 09/1800 UTC in response to a shock observed in the solar wind at about 09/1755 UTC. Further analysis of the solar wind data since 09/2100 UTC suggests that this structure is CME material rather than related to a high-speed stream as suggested in the original filing of this report. A greater than 10 MeV proton event began at 09/1920 UTC, following the M4 flare mentioned in Part IA, and remains in progress. The current greater than 10 MeV proton flux is about 30 pfu. The greater than 2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit was moderate to high.
IIB. Prognos för geofysisk aktivitet
The geomagnetic field is expected to be mostly unsettled for the next 24-36 hours. Active conditions are expected late on 11 November in response to the M4/CME which occurred today. The greater than 10 MeV proton event is expected to continue.
III. Chans för solutbrott från 10 Nov till 12 Nov
M-klass50%50%50%
X-klass10%10%10%
Proton90%10%05%
PCAFyellow
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
  Observerad       09 Nov 191
  Prognoserat   10 Nov-12 Nov  185/180/180
  90 Day Mean        09 Nov 178
V. Geomagnetiskt A-index
  Observerad Afr/Ap 08 Nov  003/008
  Förväntat     Afr/Ap 09 Nov  008/012
  Prognoserat    Afr/Ap 10 Nov-12 Nov  010/012-015/015-020/020
VI. Chanser för geomagnetisk aktivitet från 10 Nov till 12 Nov
A. Medelhöga breddgrader
Aktivt15%20%30%
Små stormförhållanden05%10%20%
Svåra stormförhållanden01%05%10%
B. Höga breddgrader
Aktivt15%25%35%
Små stormförhållanden10%15%25%
Svåra stormförhållanden01%05%10%

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