Viewing archive of fredag, 20 september 2002

Solaktivitetsrapport

Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Rapport för sol- och geofysisk aktivitet 2002 Sep 20 2200 UTC
Skapad av NOAA © SWPC och bearbetad av SpaceWeatherLive.com

USAF/NOAA rapport för sol- och geofysisk aktivitet

SDF Nummer 263 publicerat klockan 2200Z på 20 Sep 2002

IA. Analys av solfläcksgrupper och solaktivitet från 19-2100Z till 20-2100Z

Solar activity was moderate. New Region 126 (S24E62) produced two M-class flares this period. Both were M1/Sf flares, at 20/0512Z and 0928Z, and both were accompanied by minor centimetric bursts. Limb proximity makes it too difficult to accurately assess Region 126's complexity, but initial measurements indicate a D type group with 200 millionths of white light areal coverage. Region 119 (S14W24) continues to grow and the delta configuration is now more pronounced. Despite this region's moderate complexity, flare output has been nothing more than occasional minor C-class flares. Early in the period, a large CME was observed, originating along a filament channel near S30E12. The ejecta does not appear earthward directed. New Regions 127 (S14E19) and 128 (N11E63) were numbered today. Region 127 is in close proximity to Region 122 (S18E21), but the consensus is that these are separate regions.
IB. Prognos för solaktivitet
Solar activity is expected to continue at low to moderate levels. Low M-class flares are possible from Regions 119 and 126.
IIA. Sammanfattning av geofysisk aktivitet 19-2100Z till 20-2100Z
The geomagnetic field was quiet to unsettled. Solar wind speed began the period near 700 km/s following the arrival of a CME earlier yesterday. However, a weak IMF with sustained northward Bz offset any significant impact on the geomagnetic field.
IIB. Prognos för geofysisk aktivitet
The geomagnetic field is expected to remain at quiet to unsettled levels for the next three days.
III. Chans för solutbrott från 21 Sep till 23 Sep
M-klass50%50%50%
X-klass05%05%05%
Proton05%05%05%
PCAFgreen
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
  Observerad       20 Sep 164
  Prognoserat   21 Sep-23 Sep  165/160/160
  90 Day Mean        20 Sep 178
V. Geomagnetiskt A-index
  Observerad Afr/Ap 19 Sep  011/013
  Förväntat     Afr/Ap 20 Sep  006/010
  Prognoserat    Afr/Ap 21 Sep-23 Sep  008/012-008/010-008/010
VI. Chanser för geomagnetisk aktivitet från 21 Sep till 23 Sep
A. Medelhöga breddgrader
Aktivt20%15%15%
Små stormförhållanden05%05%05%
Svåra stormförhållanden01%01%01%
B. Höga breddgrader
Aktivt25%20%20%
Små stormförhållanden05%05%05%
Svåra stormförhållanden01%01%01%

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