Viewing archive of torsdag, 19 september 2002
Solaktivitetsrapport
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Rapport för sol- och geofysisk aktivitet 2002 Sep 19 2200 UTCSkapad av NOAA © SWPC och bearbetad av SpaceWeatherLive.com
USAF/NOAA rapport för sol- och geofysisk aktivitet
SDF Nummer 262 publicerat klockan 2200Z på 19 Sep 2002IA. Analys av solfläcksgrupper och solaktivitet från 18-2100Z till 19-2100Z Solar activity was low. The largest event of the period
was a C4/1f flare from Region 125 (S08E55). An associated Type II
radio sweep and CME was observed with this flare, but the ejecta was
not earthward directed. Region 119 (S14W10) produced occasional low
C-class flares. This region continues to develop and a weak delta
configuration is now evident. Region 105 (S08W83) also produced
minor C-class flares as it rotates around the west limb. New Region
126 (S23E75) was numbered today.
IB. Prognos för solaktivitet
Solar activity is expected to be low
to moderate. Developing Region 119 has best potential for a low
M-class flare. There is still a small chance for a low M-class flare
from Region 105 on the west limb.
IIA. Sammanfattning av geofysisk aktivitet 18-2100Z till 19-2100Z
The geomagnetic field ranged from quiet to minor storm levels. A weak
shock was observed at the ACE spacecraft just before 19/0600Z. Solar
wind speed gradually increased to over 750 km/s by late in the
period, but total magnetic field measurements and densities remained
very low. This disturbance is likely associated with the C8 flare
and CME observed on 17 September. The greater than 2 MeV electron
flux was at moderate to high levels.
IIB. Prognos för geofysisk aktivitet
The geomagnetic field is
expected to continue at unsettled to minor storm levels through day
one. Unsettled conditions are expected to prevail after the current
disturbance subsides.
III. Chans för solutbrott från 20 Sep till 22 Sep
| M-klass | 40% | 40% | 40% |
| X-klass | 05% | 05% | 05% |
| Proton | 05% | 05% | 05% |
| PCAF | green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observerad 19 Sep 165 Prognoserat 20 Sep-22 Sep 165/160/155 90 Day Mean 19 Sep 178
V. Geomagnetiskt A-index
Observerad Afr/Ap 18 Sep 013/014 Förväntat Afr/Ap 19 Sep 018/018 Prognoserat Afr/Ap 20 Sep-22 Sep 020/020-008/010-008/010
VI. Chanser för geomagnetisk aktivitet från 20 Sep till 22 Sep
| A. Medelhöga breddgrader | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Aktivt | 50% | 30% | 20% |
| Små stormförhållanden | 30% | 10% | 05% |
| Svåra stormförhållanden | 15% | 05% | 01% |
| B. Höga breddgrader | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Aktivt | 40% | 40% | 25% |
| Små stormförhållanden | 40% | 15% | 05% |
| Svåra stormförhållanden | 20% | 10% | 01% |
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Rymdvädersfakta
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