Viewing archive of tisdag, 10 september 2002
Solaktivitetsrapport
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Rapport för sol- och geofysisk aktivitet 2002 Sep 10 2200 UTCSkapad av NOAA © SWPC och bearbetad av SpaceWeatherLive.com
USAF/NOAA rapport för sol- och geofysisk aktivitet
SDF Nummer 253 publicerat klockan 2200Z på 10 Sep 2002IA. Analys av solfläcksgrupper och solaktivitet från 09-2100Z till 10-2100Z Solar activity was moderate. Region 105 (S08E42)
produced the largest event of the period, an impulsive M2/1n flare
with associated Type-II and Type-IV radio sweeps, however no
significant CME was visible in LASCO imagery following the event.
Numerous C-class flares also occurred, with many from Region 105 but
also from Regions 107 (N11E43) and 103 (N15W21). Region 105 remains
the largest and most complex region on the visible disk, while
Regions 103 and 107 have both undergone rapid growth in size and
complexity during the period. Three new regions were numbered
today: 108 (S23E49), 109 (S08E18), and 110 (N20E18). All are
presently small and simply structured.
IB. Prognos för solaktivitet
Solar activity is expected to remain
at moderate levels for the next three days. A chance for an
isolated major flare event exists for Region 105.
IIA. Sammanfattning av geofysisk aktivitet 09-2100Z till 10-2100Z
The geomagnetic field ranged from quiet to minor storm conditions.
Persistent southward Bz during most of the past 24 hours was
responsible for the elevated periods of activity.
IIB. Prognos för geofysisk aktivitet
The geomagnetic field is
expected to be quiet to active for the next 48-72 hours, as an
equatorial extension of the south polar coronal hole rotates though
geoeffective heliographic longitudes.
III. Chans för solutbrott från 11 Sep till 13 Sep
| M-klass | 60% | 60% | 60% |
| X-klass | 10% | 10% | 10% |
| Proton | 05% | 05% | 05% |
| PCAF | green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observerad 10 Sep 221 Prognoserat 11 Sep-13 Sep 220/225/225 90 Day Mean 10 Sep 172
V. Geomagnetiskt A-index
Observerad Afr/Ap 09 Sep 007/010 Förväntat Afr/Ap 10 Sep 013/018 Prognoserat Afr/Ap 11 Sep-13 Sep 012/015-015/015-010/015
VI. Chanser för geomagnetisk aktivitet från 11 Sep till 13 Sep
| A. Medelhöga breddgrader | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Aktivt | 25% | 30% | 20% |
| Små stormförhållanden | 10% | 10% | 05% |
| Svåra stormförhållanden | 01% | 05% | 01% |
| B. Höga breddgrader | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Aktivt | 30% | 30% | 30% |
| Små stormförhållanden | 10% | 15% | 10% |
| Svåra stormförhållanden | 01% | 05% | 01% |
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Rymdvädersfakta
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