Viewing archive of onsdag 14 augusti 2002

Solaktivitetsrapport

Rapport för sol- och geofysisk aktivitet 2002 Aug 14 2200 UTC
Skapad av NOAA © SWPC och bearbetad av SpaceWeatherLive.com

USAF/NOAA rapport för sol- och geofysisk aktivitet

SDF Nummer 226 publicerat klockan 2200Z på 14 Aug 2002

IA. Analys av solfläcksgrupper och solaktivitet från 13-2100Z till 14-2100Z

Solar activity remained at moderate levels. Region 61 (N08W69) produced a long-duration M2/1n flare at 14/0212 UTC associated with a Type II radio sweep, partial-halo CME, and a solar proton event. Region 61 had been in a state of gradual decay for the last several days. Region 67 (N11E20) produced an M1/1f flare at 14/1815 UTC as well as a few C-class flares. It was in a growth phase during the period. Region 69 (S08E37) produced isolated C-class flares as it continued to gradually increase in area, which now exceeds 1500 millionths of the solar disk. Region 66 (N13E03) produced isolated C-class flares as it grew at a gradual pace. New Regions 78 (S13W12), 79 (S20E55), and 80 (N16E69) were numbered today.
IB. Prognos för solaktivitet
Solar activity is expected to be at low to moderate levels. Isolated M-class flares are possible through the period. There is a slight chance for a major flare from Region 69.
IIA. Sammanfattning av geofysisk aktivitet 13-2100Z till 14-2100Z
Geomagnetic field activity was at quiet to unsettled levels during most of the period, with brief active periods detected at high latitudes. A greater than 10 MeV proton event began at geo-synchronous orbit at 14/0900 UTC and reached a preliminary maximum of 26 pfu at 14/1620 UTC. The greater than 2 MeV electron flux at geo-synchronous orbit increased to moderate to high levels during the period.
IIB. Prognos för geofysisk aktivitet
A geomagnetic disturbance is expected to begin during the latter half of 15 August and continue into 16 August following today's long-duration M2/partail-halo CME event. Active to minor storm conditions are expected during this disturbance. Field activity is expected to decrease to quiet to unsettled levels on 17 August. The greater than 10 MeV proton event is expected to end sometime during the first half of the forecast period. The greater than 2 MeV electron flux is expected to be at moderate to high levels during the period.
III. Chans för solutbrott från 15 Aug till 17 Aug
M-klass45%45%45%
X-klass05%05%05%
Proton90%75%40%
PCAFyellow
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
  Observerad       14 Aug 208
  Prognoserat   15 Aug-17 Aug  210/215/215
  90 Day Mean        14 Aug 165
V. Geomagnetiskt A-index
  Observerad Afr/Ap 13 Aug  009/013
  Förväntat     Afr/Ap 14 Aug  012/015
  Prognoserat    Afr/Ap 15 Aug-17 Aug  015/020-025/030-012/015
VI. Chanser för geomagnetisk aktivitet från 15 Aug till 17 Aug
A. Medelhöga breddgrader
Aktivt40%35%25%
Små stormförhållanden20%30%10%
Svåra stormförhållanden05%10%01%
B. Höga breddgrader
Aktivt45%30%30%
Små stormförhållanden25%35%15%
Svåra stormförhållanden10%20%01%

Gå till översikt idag

Stöd SpaceWeatherLive.com!

För att vara tillgängliga vid stora norrskensutbrott måsta vi ha kraftiga servrar som kan hantera alla besökare. Donera och stöd vårt projekt, så att vi kan finnas online även under stora stormar!

64%

Rymdvädersfakta

Senaste X-utbrottet10/09/2017X8.2
Senaste M-utbrottet29/05/2020M1.1
Senaste geomagnetiska stormen20/04/2020Kp5 (G1)
Fläckfria dagar
Last 365 days308 dagar
2020147 dagar (77%)
Senaste dag utan solfläckar09/07/2020

I dag i historien*

Solutbrott
12000X1.0
22002M5.8
32000M4.2
42000M1.1
52002M1.0
ApG
1200352G2
2200034G1
3201523G1
4200721G1
5200521G1
*sedan 1994

Sociala medier