Viewing archive of torsdag, 18 juli 2002
Solaktivitetsrapport
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Rapport för sol- och geofysisk aktivitet 2002 Jul 18 2200 UTCSkapad av NOAA © SWPC och bearbetad av SpaceWeatherLive.com
USAF/NOAA rapport för sol- och geofysisk aktivitet
SDF Nummer 199 publicerat klockan 2200Z på 18 Jul 2002IA. Analys av solfläcksgrupper och solaktivitet från 17-2100Z till 18-2100Z Solar activity was at high levels. Region 30 (N18W38)
produced an X1/2b flare at 18/0744 UTC with an associated Type II,
Type IV, and discrete frequency radio bursts. SOHO/LASCO imagery
indicates a faint full halo CME. Region 30 continues its gradual
decay but retains a beta-gamma-delta magnetic classification.
Region 36 (S07E37) has grown to 860 millionths and 26 spots. This
large compact region did not produce any significant activity during
the last 24 hours.
IB. Prognos för solaktivitet
Solar activity is expected to be
moderate. M-Class activity is expected from Region 30 and Region
36. There is also the possibility of isolated X-class activity from
these regions.
IIA. Sammanfattning av geofysisk aktivitet 17-2100Z till 18-2100Z
The geomagnetic field was at quiet to unsettled levels. The PCA
event that began on 16/2215 UTC ended at 18/0300 UTC with a peak
absorption observed on the Thule 30 MHz riometer of 6 Db at 17/1600
UTC. The greater than 10 MeV proton event that began on 16/1750 UTC
ended at 18/1550 UTC, peak value reached 234 pfu at 17/1600 UTC.
IIB. Prognos för geofysisk aktivitet
The geomagnetic field is
expected to be quiet to active. A CME shock from the X1 event on
18/0744 UTC is expected to arrive early on day two of the forecast
period.
III. Chans för solutbrott från 19 Jul till 21 Jul
| M-klass | 75% | 75% | 75% |
| X-klass | 20% | 20% | 20% |
| Proton | 50% | 15% | 15% |
| PCAF | Yellow | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observerad 18 Jul 181 Prognoserat 19 Jul-21 Jul 185/185/190 90 Day Mean 18 Jul 161
V. Geomagnetiskt A-index
Observerad Afr/Ap 17 Jul 015/018 Förväntat Afr/Ap 18 Jul 008/010 Prognoserat Afr/Ap 19 Jul-21 Jul 015/020-015/015-012/020
VI. Chanser för geomagnetisk aktivitet från 19 Jul till 21 Jul
| A. Medelhöga breddgrader | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Aktivt | 25% | 35% | 25% |
| Små stormförhållanden | 10% | 15% | 10% |
| Svåra stormförhållanden | 01% | 05% | 01% |
| B. Höga breddgrader | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Aktivt | 30% | 40% | 30% |
| Små stormförhållanden | 15% | 20% | 15% |
| Svåra stormförhållanden | 05% | 05% | 05% |
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Rymdvädersfakta
| Senaste X-utbrottet | 2024/03/28 | X1.1 |
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| Fläckfria dagar | |
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