Viewing archive of torsdag, 11 juli 2002
Solaktivitetsrapport
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Rapport för sol- och geofysisk aktivitet 2002 Jul 11 2200 UTCSkapad av NOAA © SWPC och bearbetad av SpaceWeatherLive.com
USAF/NOAA rapport för sol- och geofysisk aktivitet
SDF Nummer 192 publicerat klockan 2200Z på 11 Jul 2002IA. Analys av solfläcksgrupper och solaktivitet från 10-2100Z till 11-2100Z Solar activity was at high levels. Region 30 (N19E49)
produced a major flare during the period, an impulsive M5/2b flare
occurred at 11/1451 UTC as well as an impulsive M1 x-ray flare at
11/1419 UTC. Multiple C-class flares from this region were also
observed today. This region is by far the most complex region seen
on the visible disk. A beta-gamma-delta magnetic complex, showing
steady penumbral growth. Region 19 (S19W83) has been in slow decay
as it begins to transit the west limb. The remaining spotted
regions have been quiescent or in slow decay. New Region 31
(N10E65) was assigned today.
IB. Prognos för solaktivitet
Solar activity is expected to be at
moderate levels. Region 30 remains complex enough to produce an
isolated major flare.
IIA. Sammanfattning av geofysisk aktivitet 10-2100Z till 11-2100Z
The geomagnetic field was at predominantly quiet to isolated
unsettled levels at all latitudes.
IIB. Prognos för geofysisk aktivitet
The geomagnetic field is
expected to be at quiet to unsettled levels until day two of the
period, where a favorably positioned coronal hole may produce active
conditions. Day three should see a return to quiet to unsettled
conditions.
III. Chans för solutbrott från 12 Jul till 14 Jul
| M-klass | 50% | 50% | 50% |
| X-klass | 05% | 05% | 05% |
| Proton | 05% | 05% | 05% |
| PCAF | green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observerad 11 Jul 136 Prognoserat 12 Jul-14 Jul 135/135/140 90 Day Mean 11 Jul 165
V. Geomagnetiskt A-index
Observerad Afr/Ap 10 Jul 007/011 Förväntat Afr/Ap 11 Jul 006/006 Prognoserat Afr/Ap 12 Jul-14 Jul 008/008-015/015-010/010
VI. Chanser för geomagnetisk aktivitet från 12 Jul till 14 Jul
| A. Medelhöga breddgrader | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Aktivt | 20% | 30% | 20% |
| Små stormförhållanden | 05% | 15% | 05% |
| Svåra stormförhållanden | 01% | 05% | 01% |
| B. Höga breddgrader | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Aktivt | 25% | 35% | 25% |
| Små stormförhållanden | 10% | 15% | 10% |
| Svåra stormförhållanden | 05% | 10% | 05% |
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