Viewing archive of söndag, 7 juli 2002

Solaktivitetsrapport

Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Rapport för sol- och geofysisk aktivitet 2002 Jul 07 2200 UTC
Skapad av NOAA © SWPC och bearbetad av SpaceWeatherLive.com

USAF/NOAA rapport för sol- och geofysisk aktivitet

SDF Nummer 188 publicerat klockan 2200Z på 07 Jul 2002

IA. Analys av solfläcksgrupper och solaktivitet från 06-2100Z till 07-2100Z

Solar activity was moderate. A long duration M1.0 flare occurred during 07/1114-1143-1317 UTC. Imagery from SOHO/LASCO revealed a fast partial halo CME off the southwest limb in association with this event, possibly from old Region 17 (S18, L=235) behind the west limb. This event also caused an enhancement in energetic protons (see section IIA below). Other activity included a multi-peak C-class event with maximum flux of C3.5 at 07/0401 UTC. H-alpha imagery from the IPS Culgoora observatory revealed an active prominence on the southwest limb as well as plage brightening in Region 19 (S19W32) in association with this event. Another event of interest occurred at about 07/1700 UTC, with a large, 35-degree filament eruption centered near N11W49, which also produced a CME visible in SOHO/LASCO imagery. New Region 27 (S15E26) was numbered today.
IB. Prognos för solaktivitet
Solar activity is expected to be low to moderate. Region 19 remains a potential source of M-class flare activity.
IIA. Sammanfattning av geofysisk aktivitet 06-2100Z till 07-2100Z
The geomagnetic field was predominantly quiet to unsettled, with one isolated active period observed at Boulder during 07/1500-1800 UTC. Coronal hole effects appeared to wane throughout the day. A 10 MeV proton event began at 07/1830 UTC, due to enhanced flux following the LDE discussed in section 1A above, and remains in progress. Maximum flux observed thus far was 22 pfu at 07/1955 UTC.
IIB. Prognos för geofysisk aktivitet
The geomagnetic field is expected to be mainly quiet to unsettled. Isolated active periods are possible during the next 3 days, in response to earlier CME activity from Region 19 as well as from the filament eruption and other flare activity observed today.
III. Chans för solutbrott från 08 Jul till 10 Jul
M-klass35%30%30%
X-klass01%01%01%
Proton35%01%01%
PCAFyellow
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
  Observerad       07 Jul 137
  Prognoserat   08 Jul-10 Jul  132/130/130
  90 Day Mean        07 Jul 168
V. Geomagnetiskt A-index
  Observerad Afr/Ap 06 Jul  018/023
  Förväntat     Afr/Ap 07 Jul  011/013
  Prognoserat    Afr/Ap 08 Jul-10 Jul  015/015-012/012-012/008
VI. Chanser för geomagnetisk aktivitet från 08 Jul till 10 Jul
A. Medelhöga breddgrader
Aktivt30%25%25%
Små stormförhållanden10%10%10%
Svåra stormförhållanden01%01%01%
B. Höga breddgrader
Aktivt35%30%25%
Små stormförhållanden15%15%15%
Svåra stormförhållanden01%01%01%

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