Viewing archive of lördag, 1 juni 2002
Solaktivitetsrapport
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Rapport för sol- och geofysisk aktivitet 2002 Jun 01 2200 UTCSkapad av NOAA © SWPC och bearbetad av SpaceWeatherLive.com
USAF/NOAA rapport för sol- och geofysisk aktivitet
SDF Nummer 152 publicerat klockan 2200Z på 01 Jun 2002IA. Analys av solfläcksgrupper och solaktivitet från 31-2100Z till 01-2100Z Solar activity was moderate. Two impulsive M-class
events occurred during the period. The first was an M1/1n flare
from Region 9973 (S17E23) at 01/0357 UTC. This event was
accompanied by a moderate tenflare (260 sfu), and Type II/IV radio
sweeps (with estimated sweep velocity = 493 km/s). Region 9973
retains its large size and moderate magnetic complexity though also
appears relatively stable. Today's second event was an M1/Sf flare
from Region 9979 (S30E63), which occurred at 01/1049 UTC. This
region is exhibiting moderate magnetic complexity as it rotates into
better view on the visible disk. Newly numbered Region 9980
(S29E08) emerged on the disk today as a small and simply structured
spot group.
IB. Prognos för solaktivitet
Solar activity is expected to persist
at low to moderate levels for the next three days. A chance for an
isolated major flare exists for Regions 9973 and 9979.
IIA. Sammanfattning av geofysisk aktivitet 31-2100Z till 01-2100Z
The geomagnetic field was predominantly quiet, with some isolated
unsettled periods.
IIB. Prognos för geofysisk aktivitet
The geomagnetic field is
expected to remain mainly quiet to unsettled for most of the
forecast period. There is a chance for isolated active conditions
by the end of the period, which may result from the solar activity
reported yesterday or from today's M1/1n event (described in section
1A above).
III. Chans för solutbrott från 02 Jun till 04 Jun
| M-klass | 50% | 50% | 50% |
| X-klass | 05% | 05% | 05% |
| Proton | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| PCAF | green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observerad 01 Jun 179 Prognoserat 02 Jun-04 Jun 175/170/170 90 Day Mean 01 Jun 183
V. Geomagnetiskt A-index
Observerad Afr/Ap 31 May 006/006 Förväntat Afr/Ap 01 Jun 006/006 Prognoserat Afr/Ap 02 Jun-04 Jun 005/008-008/010-010/010
VI. Chanser för geomagnetisk aktivitet från 02 Jun till 04 Jun
| A. Medelhöga breddgrader | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Aktivt | 15% | 15% | 20% |
| Små stormförhållanden | 01% | 01% | 05% |
| Svåra stormförhållanden | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| B. Höga breddgrader | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Aktivt | 15% | 15% | 25% |
| Små stormförhållanden | 01% | 01% | 05% |
| Svåra stormförhållanden | 01% | 01% | 01% |
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