Viewing archive of fredag, 24 maj 2002
Solaktivitetsrapport
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Rapport för sol- och geofysisk aktivitet 2002 May 24 2200 UTCSkapad av NOAA © SWPC och bearbetad av SpaceWeatherLive.com
USAF/NOAA rapport för sol- och geofysisk aktivitet
SDF Nummer 144 publicerat klockan 2200Z på 24 May 2002IA. Analys av solfläcksgrupper och solaktivitet från 23-2100Z till 24-2100Z Solar activity increased to moderate levels. Region
9963 (N15E23) produced an impulsive M1/Sf flare at 24/0646 UTC and a
few C-class flares. There were no significant changes noted in this
region. An optically uncorrelated Type II radio sweep occurred at
24/0322 UTC. Region 9957 (N11W32) continued to gradually decay, but
remained moderately complex. Region 9960 (N14W09) showed no
significant changes during the period, but retained a delta magnetic
configuration within its trailer spots. Region 9961 (S22E09)
appeared to be in a decay phase with a weakened delta magnetic
configuration within its intermediate spots. New Region 9968
(S13E26) was numbered.
IB. Prognos för solaktivitet
Solar activity is expected to be
moderate. Isolated M-class flares are possible from Regions 9957,
9960, and 9961. There is also a slight chance for a major flare
during the period.
IIA. Sammanfattning av geofysisk aktivitet 23-2100Z till 24-2100Z
Geomagnetic field activity was at quiet to unsettled levels. The
greater than 10 MeV proton event that began at 22/1755 UTC ended at
24/1455 UTC. The maximum flux for this event was 820 pfu at 23/1055
UTC.
IIB. Prognos för geofysisk aktivitet
Geomagnetic field activity is
expected to be at quiet to active levels. Active periods are
possible during 25 May due to recurrent coronal hole effects. Quiet
to unsettled conditions are expected during the rest of the period.
There is a slight chance for a proton event during the period.
III. Chans för solutbrott från 25 May till 27 May
| M-klass | 50% | 50% | 50% |
| X-klass | 10% | 10% | 10% |
| Proton | 10% | 10% | 10% |
| PCAF | yellow | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observerad 24 May 189 Prognoserat 25 May-27 May 180/180/180 90 Day Mean 24 May 184
V. Geomagnetiskt A-index
Observerad Afr/Ap 23 May 052/054 Förväntat Afr/Ap 24 May 006/012 Prognoserat Afr/Ap 25 May-27 May 015/015-010/008-010/012
VI. Chanser för geomagnetisk aktivitet från 25 May till 27 May
| A. Medelhöga breddgrader | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Aktivt | 35% | 25% | 25% |
| Små stormförhållanden | 20% | 10% | 10% |
| Svåra stormförhållanden | 05% | 01% | 01% |
| B. Höga breddgrader | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Aktivt | 40% | 30% | 30% |
| Små stormförhållanden | 20% | 15% | 15% |
| Svåra stormförhållanden | 05% | 01% | 01% |
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