Viewing archive of tisdag, 21 maj 2002
Solaktivitetsrapport
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Rapport för sol- och geofysisk aktivitet 2002 May 21 2200 UTCSkapad av NOAA © SWPC och bearbetad av SpaceWeatherLive.com
USAF/NOAA rapport för sol- och geofysisk aktivitet
SDF Nummer 141 publicerat klockan 2200Z på 21 May 2002IA. Analys av solfläcksgrupper och solaktivitet från 20-2100Z till 21-2100Z Solar activity was low during the past 24 hours.
Today's largest event was a C4/Sf from Region 9960 (N14E35). A
comparison of white light and magnetogram data indicate that this
region has a small delta configuration. Region 9961 (N14E35) also
produced some C-class subflares today and shows a compact delta in
the leading part of the group. Region 9957 (N09E08) continues to be
the largest group on the disk and also possesses a delta. However,
this region was quiet and stable today, and is beginning to show
signs of decay.
IB. Prognos för solaktivitet
Solar activity is expected to be
moderate during the next three days. The most likely sources for
energetic flare activity are 9957 and 9961, although 9960 could
contribute an isolated M-class event. There is a slight chance for
an X-class flare or proton producing event.
IIA. Sammanfattning av geofysisk aktivitet 20-2100Z till 21-2100Z
The geomagnetic field was mostly quiet to unsettled. There was one
period of active conditions from 0600-0900 UTC at high latitudes.
IIB. Prognos för geofysisk aktivitet
The geomagnetic field is
expected to be predominantly quiet to unsettled for the next three
days. There is a slight chance for some isolated active periods on
day two (due to the CME of 19/2026 UTC) and on day three due to
possible coronal hole effects.
III. Chans för solutbrott från 22 May till 24 May
| M-klass | 70% | 70% | 70% |
| X-klass | 20% | 20% | 20% |
| Proton | 15% | 15% | 15% |
| PCAF | yellow | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observerad 21 May 186 Prognoserat 22 May-24 May 180/180/175 90 Day Mean 21 May 184
V. Geomagnetiskt A-index
Observerad Afr/Ap 20 May 008/014 Förväntat Afr/Ap 21 May 008/010 Prognoserat Afr/Ap 22 May-24 May 005/010-012/012-012/010
VI. Chanser för geomagnetisk aktivitet från 22 May till 24 May
| A. Medelhöga breddgrader | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Aktivt | 20% | 25% | 35% |
| Små stormförhållanden | 10% | 15% | 15% |
| Svåra stormförhållanden | 05% | 10% | 10% |
| B. Höga breddgrader | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Aktivt | 20% | 20% | 25% |
| Små stormförhållanden | 10% | 20% | 35% |
| Svåra stormförhållanden | 05% | 20% | 10% |
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Rymdvädersfakta
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