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Solaktivitetsrapport

Rapport för sol- och geofysisk aktivitet 2002 Apr 23 2200 UTC
Skapad av NOAA © SWPC och bearbetad av SpaceWeatherLive.com

USAF/NOAA rapport för sol- och geofysisk aktivitet

SDF Nummer 113 publicerat klockan 2200Z på 23 Apr 2002

IA. Analys av solfläcksgrupper och solaktivitet från 22-2100Z till 23-2100Z

Solar activity remained at low levels. Minor growth occurred in Regions 9914 (N04E18), 9915 (N11E28), and 9916 (S18E47) and each produced an isolated subflare. Region 9912 (N11W38) showed gradual decay in its trailer spots. A large filament erupted from the southwest quadrant during 22/2230 - 2325 UTC. A CME followed the eruption, but it did not appear to be Earth-directed. New Regions 9920 (S23W03), 9921 (N12E41), and 9922 (N19E56) were numbered.
IB. Prognos för solaktivitet
Solar activity is expected to be low to moderate. There's a chance for an isolated low-level M-class flare during the period.
IIA. Sammanfattning av geofysisk aktivitet 22-2100Z till 23-2100Z
Geomagnetic field activity ranged from quiet to major storm levels. Field activity increased to active to major storm levels during 23/0300 - 0900 UTC following a sudden impulse at 23/0450 UTC (60 nT, as measured by the Boulder USGS magnetometer). This increase was due to a CME passage associated with the X1 limb flare on 21 April from old Region 9906 (S16, L = 151). Activity decreased to unsettled to active levels during 23/0900 - 1800 UTC. The field was quiet after 23/1800 UTC. The greater than 100 MeV proton event that began at 21/0155 UTC ended at 22/2335 UTC (peak 22.9 pfu at 21/1025 UTC). The greater than 10 MeV proton event that began at 21/0225 UTC continued (peak 2520 pfu at 21/2320 UTC). The greater than 10 MeV flux at the close of the period was around 110 pfu.
IIB. Prognos för geofysisk aktivitet
The geomagnetic field is expected to be at unsettled to active levels on 24 April decreasing to quiet to unsettled levels for the rest of the period. The greater than 10 MeV proton event is expected to end on 25 April.
III. Chans för solutbrott från 24 Apr till 26 Apr
M-klass40%40%40%
X-klass05%05%05%
Proton99%80%20%
PCAFin progress
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
  Observerad       23 Apr 175
  Prognoserat   24 Apr-26 Apr  180/180/180
  90 Day Mean        23 Apr 198
V. Geomagnetiskt A-index
  Observerad Afr/Ap 22 Apr  008/012
  Förväntat     Afr/Ap 23 Apr  018/022
  Prognoserat    Afr/Ap 24 Apr-26 Apr  015/015-010/010-008/008
VI. Chanser för geomagnetisk aktivitet från 24 Apr till 26 Apr
A. Medelhöga breddgrader
Aktivt40%30%25%
Små stormförhållanden10%05%05%
Svåra stormförhållanden05%01%01%
B. Höga breddgrader
Aktivt45%35%30%
Små stormförhållanden15%10%10%
Svåra stormförhållanden10%05%05%

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