Viewing archive of fredag, 19 april 2002
Solaktivitetsrapport
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Rapport för sol- och geofysisk aktivitet 2002 Apr 19 2200 UTCSkapad av NOAA © SWPC och bearbetad av SpaceWeatherLive.com
USAF/NOAA rapport för sol- och geofysisk aktivitet
SDF Nummer 109 publicerat klockan 2200Z på 19 Apr 2002IA. Analys av solfläcksgrupper och solaktivitet från 18-2100Z till 19-2100Z Solar activity was low. Region 9906 (S14W66) produced
several C-class subflares during the past day. The largest was a
C3/Sf at 19/1822 UTC. This region continues to decay slowly but
retains appreciable size and magnetic complexity. New Regions 9913
(S15E23) and 9914 (N04E72) were numbered.
IB. Prognos för solaktivitet
Solar activity is expected to be
moderate. Region 9906 appears to be capable of M-class activity,
including an isolated major flare.
IIA. Sammanfattning av geofysisk aktivitet 18-2100Z till 19-2100Z
The geomagnetic field ranged from unsettled to major storm. A shock
was observed at ACE at 19/0804 UTC and was followed by an SI at
ground magnetometers (36 nT at Boulder) at 19/0836 UTC. This shock
is believed to be associated with the LDE M2/CME that occurred on 17
April.
IIB. Prognos för geofysisk aktivitet
The geomagnetic field is
expected to be at active to major storm levels for about the next 12
hours as the current CME passes. The field is expected to return to
quiet to unsettled conditions by the end of the 3-day forecast
period. A greater than 10 MeV proton event is possible if Region
9906 produces a major flare.
III. Chans för solutbrott från 20 Apr till 22 Apr
| M-klass | 50% | 30% | 30% |
| X-klass | 05% | 01% | 01% |
| Proton | 05% | 01% | 01% |
| PCAF | yellow | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observerad 19 Apr 180 Prognoserat 20 Apr-22 Apr 175/170/170 90 Day Mean 19 Apr 201
V. Geomagnetiskt A-index
Observerad Afr/Ap 18 Apr 035/054 Förväntat Afr/Ap 19 Apr 030/040 Prognoserat Afr/Ap 20 Apr-22 Apr 030/040-012/015-008/015
VI. Chanser för geomagnetisk aktivitet från 20 Apr till 22 Apr
| A. Medelhöga breddgrader | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Aktivt | 60% | 30% | 10% |
| Små stormförhållanden | 30% | 10% | 05% |
| Svåra stormförhållanden | 10% | 05% | 01% |
| B. Höga breddgrader | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Aktivt | 45% | 40% | 15% |
| Små stormförhållanden | 40% | 15% | 05% |
| Svåra stormförhållanden | 15% | 10% | 01% |
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