Viewing archive of söndag, 7 april 2002

Solaktivitetsrapport

Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Rapport för sol- och geofysisk aktivitet 2002 Apr 07 2200 UTC
Skapad av NOAA © SWPC och bearbetad av SpaceWeatherLive.com

USAF/NOAA rapport för sol- och geofysisk aktivitet

SDF Nummer 097 publicerat klockan 2200Z på 07 Apr 2002

IA. Analys av solfläcksgrupper och solaktivitet från 06-2100Z till 07-2100Z

Solar activity was at low levels. Region 9893 (N18E27) produced most of today's activity as well as the largest flare of the day, a C9/1f flare occurring at 07/0523 UTC. The growth of several additional spots seen today in this region although areal coverage went mostly unchanged from yesterday. A source region beyond the east limb produced a Type II radio sweep at 07/0012 UTC that had an estimated shock velocity of 586 km/s. LASCO differencing imagery captured an east limb CME shortly after the Type II was observed, although it is unlikely this event will be geoeffective. New Regions 9900 (S29E07), 9901 (N20E37), and 9902 (N11E75) were numbered today.
IB. Prognos för solaktivitet
Solar activity is expected to be predominantly low to moderate, although Region 9893 and 9897 (S02W17) both possess the potential to produce an isolated major flare.
IIA. Sammanfattning av geofysisk aktivitet 06-2100Z till 07-2100Z
The geomagnetic field activity was at quiet to unsettled levels. The greater than 2 MeV electron flux observed at geosynchronous orbit continued a steady drop from moderately enhanced levels today.
IIB. Prognos för geofysisk aktivitet
Geomagnetic field activity is expected to be at quiet to unsettled levels with isolated active periods possible on days one and two of the forecast period. Day three should return to predominantly quiet conditions. The greater than 2 Mev electron flux should be slightly enhanced through the first day of the period.
III. Chans för solutbrott från 08 Apr till 10 Apr
M-klass60%60%60%
X-klass10%10%10%
Proton05%05%05%
PCAFgreen
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
  Observerad       07 Apr
  Prognoserat   08 Apr-10 Apr  200/190/185
  90 Day Mean        07 Apr 201
V. Geomagnetiskt A-index
  Observerad Afr/Ap 06 Apr  004/005
  Förväntat     Afr/Ap 07 Apr  008/010
  Prognoserat    Afr/Ap 08 Apr-10 Apr  012/012-007/007-004/007
VI. Chanser för geomagnetisk aktivitet från 08 Apr till 10 Apr
A. Medelhöga breddgrader
Aktivt20%20%15%
Små stormförhållanden05%01%01%
Svåra stormförhållanden01%01%01%
B. Höga breddgrader
Aktivt25%20%15%
Små stormförhållanden10%05%01%
Svåra stormförhållanden01%01%01%

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