Viewing archive of tisdag, 19 mars 2002
Solaktivitetsrapport
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Rapport för sol- och geofysisk aktivitet 2002 Mar 19 2200 UTCSkapad av NOAA © SWPC och bearbetad av SpaceWeatherLive.com
USAF/NOAA rapport för sol- och geofysisk aktivitet
SDF Nummer 078 publicerat klockan 2200Z på 19 Mar 2002IA. Analys av solfläcksgrupper och solaktivitet från 18-2100Z till 19-2100Z Solar activity was moderate. Region 9866 (S10W59)
produced a long duration M1/1f flare at 19/1144 UTC. Two partial
halo CMEs in rapid succession occurred along with this event, with
an estimated plane of sky speed for the combined ejecta in the range
of 700-750 km/s. Region 9866 has simplified to a beta-gamma
magnetic configuration. Two new regions were numbered today:
Region 9874 (N18E21) and Region 9875 (S18E63).
IB. Prognos för solaktivitet
Solar activity is expected to be
moderate. Region 9866 and Region 9871 have the potential for
M-class events. There is a slight possibility for an isolated
X-class or proton event.
IIA. Sammanfattning av geofysisk aktivitet 18-2100Z till 19-2100Z
The geomagnetic field was at quiet to minor storm levels Minor storm
levels were observed early in the day, due to a three hour period of
sustained southward Bz during 0200-0500 UTC. The greater than 10
MeV proton event remains in progress, with a maximum flux of 53 pfu
observed at 19/0650 UTC.
IIB. Prognos för geofysisk aktivitet
The geomagnetic field is
expected to be quiet to active. Active conditions are expected on
day one from effects of the CME on 18 March. Activity is expected
to subside during day two. By day three, effects from the CME
activity discussed in section 1A above are expected to result in
predominantly active conditions.
III. Chans för solutbrott från 20 Mar till 22 Mar
| M-klass | 55% | 55% | 55% |
| X-klass | 10% | 10% | 10% |
| Proton | 10% | 10% | 10% |
| PCAF | yellow | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observerad 19 Mar 175 Prognoserat 20 Mar-22 Mar 175/175/170 90 Day Mean 19 Mar 214
V. Geomagnetiskt A-index
Observerad Afr/Ap 18 Mar 009/012 Förväntat Afr/Ap 19 Mar 012/015 Prognoserat Afr/Ap 20 Mar-22 Mar 020/020-012/010-015/015
VI. Chanser för geomagnetisk aktivitet från 20 Mar till 22 Mar
| A. Medelhöga breddgrader | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Aktivt | 30% | 25% | 35% |
| Små stormförhållanden | 20% | 15% | 25% |
| Svåra stormförhållanden | 10% | 05% | 10% |
| B. Höga breddgrader | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Aktivt | 35% | 30% | 35% |
| Små stormförhållanden | 25% | 20% | 25% |
| Svåra stormförhållanden | 15% | 10% | 15% |
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Rymdvädersfakta
| Senaste X-utbrottet | 2024/03/28 | X1.1 |
| Senaste M-utbrottet | 2024/04/19 | M1.0 |
| Senaste geomagnetiska stormen | 2024/04/16 | Kp5 (G1) |
| Fläckfria dagar | |
|---|---|
| Senaste dag utan solfläckar | 2022/06/08 |
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|---|---|
| mars 2024 | 104.9 -19.8 |